With the announcement of a new set of cabinet ministers, the Ukrainian government is getting back to normal. Economic projections are starting to be hopeful about the future, at least in the short term, and in the very least it means some stability for awhile. But politics in Ukraine is far from normal right now.

The split between Yushchenko and Tymoshenko has effectively left a lot of Ukrainian voters disillusioned with the former and cautious about the latter. Yushchenko signed a deal with arch-rival Yanukovich in order to get Yekhanurov approved as the prime minister, while Tymoshenko went to Russia for the first time. She has also sworn to take her message to the farthest reaches of Ukraine, meaning the more Russian east. Russia may in fact be the biggest gainer out of all this, and even if not, that’s how many Ukrainians are perceiving it.

As the Yushchenko and Tymoshenko teams bitterly split following the government dismissal, both had apparently sent messages to Moscow that may eventually produce a greater-than-expected cooperation between the two biggest states of the former Soviet Union.

Yushchenko appointed Yuriy Yekhanurov, a Russia-born ally of the president, to the post of prime minister. This is a contrast to Tymoshenko, who has been using populist anti-Russian rhetoric, such as pushing for the building of a natural gas pipeline bypassing Russia, and irritating Moscow for the past seven months. To push Yekhanurov through Parliament, Yushchenko struck an unprecedented agreement with Yanukovych, the Russian favorite, whose party had overwhelmingly backed the choice.

But the latest development in Ukraine????????s political reshuffling appears to be even more surprising than anything. Tymoshenko traveled to Moscow on Sept. 24 apparently for a secret meeting with Kremlin strategists to outline her vision of a future cooperation.

The Russian authorities appeared to be so pleased with Tymoshenko’s turnaround that they had immediately cancelled an international arrest warrant for her. Several Kremlin-controlled media outlets have followed with a favorable coverage of Tymoshenko in broadcasts that are widely viewed in Ukraine.

So, 10 months after Russia’s fiasco at the presidential election in Ukraine, Moscow now appears to have much closer cooperation with all three major political groups that are expected to score well as the upcoming election in March 2006. The winner will become prime minister, a job that will have extended powers to shape the country’s policy with amendments to the constitution coming into force on Jan. 1, 2006.

No matter who wins the election, Yekhanurov, Tymoshenko or Yanukovych, Russia seems to have already secured a favorable outcome.

It’s basically an all out drive for votes. Some might say that it’s politics as usual, but for those who risked their lives to go out to Maidan, they are wondering what happened to the promises both of these leaders made to the country. The drive to weed out corruption basically came to a standstill as the ministers fought with each other, and the appointment of Yekhanurov along with the Yushchenko-Yanukovich deal signals a shift toward government that doesn’t want to shake things up. At the same time, Tymoshenko was always a populist but now continues to fly off the deep end rhetorically. The desire for power from all sides seems all the more apparent now.

There’s an interesting article in today’s issue of Eurasia Daily Monitor entitled, “Is Pora turning against Yushchenko?” Although PORA never officially endorsed Yushchenko — it was only officially brought people out to protest against phony elections — it is definitely having its reservations about the capabilities and even the desire of the new government to bring about change. Also, it looks like Yushchenko’s poll numbers are dropping from a Ukrainian all-time high to a really bad low, while Tymoshenko and the PORA party are doing significantly well now. In essence, PORA, once considered having no chance in the real political arena, is once again making its case against government corruption. Here’s a bit from the end:

Pora, the non-governmental organization that played a decisive role in Ukraine’s Orange Revolution, has adopted a highly critical stance towards the ten-point memorandum signed last week by President Viktor Yushchenko and the leader of the Party of Regions, former prime minister Viktor Yanukovych (see EDM, September 23; pora.org.ua, September 27).

The memos from both wings of Pora seek to draw attention to the Yushchenko administration’s lack of progress toward implementing what they believe were the ideals of the Orange Revolution. Pora’s memorandum blamed the political crisis on the authorities and the economic crisis on the government. “Ukrainian citizens went to the Maidan not for Yushchenko or for Tymoshenko, but for a normal way of life and moral authorities” (pora.org.ua, September 27).

Interior Minister Yuriy Lutsenko, a Socialist, agreed, saying, “The Maidan stood not for Tymoshenko or even not completely for Yushchenko. People stood for liberty and against ÄelectionÅ falsification” (Ukrayinska pravda, September 26). This demand led to an unusual alliance of “socialists, nationalists, democrats, anarchists” and people of different religious confessions.

Yushchenko may come to regret signing the memorandum with Yanukovych. Serhiy Rakhmanin, a prominent commentator on Zerkalo Tyzhnia/Nedeli (September 24-30) confessed, “I pity this person ÄYushchenkoÅ. He has no place in my own Maidan.”

Yushchenko’s popularity has declined from 33% in August to only 20% today (Zerkalo Tyzhnia/Nedeli, September 24-30). The latest poll shows that Peoples Union-Our Ukraine has collapsed in support to only 13.9%, while the Tymoshenko bloc has grown to 20.5% (Ukrayinska pravda, September 28).

The outcome of the crisis suggests that Yushchenko will face a serious challenge from both Pora and Tymoshenko in the 2006 elections.

Whatever happens, it looks like the political stalemate following the Orange Revolution has put a big dent in Yushchenko’s credibility as someone who can change the country. Tymoshenko has always been the revolutionary, but perhaps too much so, as she makes business nervous and people unsure of what she’ll do to get power. As for PORA, I’ve never been keen on seeing them as a political party due to their independent nature from government, but it will be interesting to see if they get more powerful, and how they will use it.