The democratic opposition to the government of Belarus has formally united, with the selection a single candidate to represent its broad interests in the 2006 presidential election. The choice is Alyaksandr Milinkevich, a civil society advocate who is relatively unknown and untarnished by regime propaganda. They also chose as their symbol a red tree on a white field, which takes from the original red and white Belarussion flag that was discontinued under Lukashenko.

A 1-2 October congress of pro-democratic forces in Minsk selected Alyaksandr Milinkevich as its candidate to challenge President Alyaksandr Lukashenka in next year’s presidential election. More than 800 delegates cast their votes for three contenders aspiring to represent the unified Belarusian opposition in the 2006 presidential ballot: United Civic Party leader Anatol Lyabedzka, Party of Communists leader Syarhey Kalyakin, and Milinkevich, a representative of Belarus’s civil society. Kalyakin dropped out after the first round, and Milinkevich edged out Lyabedzka in the second round, with 399 votes to Lyabedzka’s 391.

Milinkevich, 58, holds a doctorate in physics and mathematics, but has been a civil-society activist for most of the past decade, leading the Ratusha nongovernmental organization (1996-2003) and the Belarusian Association of Resource Centers (since 1998). Milinkevich previously worked with the Physics Institute of the Belarusian Academy of Sciences and the University of Hrodna in western Belarus, and served as deputy head of the Hrodna Oblast Executive Committee from 1990-96. In addition to Belarusian and Russian, he speaks English, French, and Polish.

A Relative Unknown

To date, Milinkevich has participated little in Belarus’s political life and is relatively unknown to the broader public. Paradoxically, this may be an advantage in the presidential campaign next summer. All the other opposition leaders in the country, including Lyabedzka, have been repeatedly vilified by official propaganda and, according to independent polls, are distrusted by the overwhelming majority of Belarusians, who are highly skeptical of party politics in general. Milinkevich has not been targeted by the state media. In addition, his nonpartisanship gives him a certain edge over other opposition politicians in what seems to be the uphill task of maintaining the unity of the cantankerous Belarusian opposition until the 2006 election.

Milinkevich seems to be taking a realistic view of the political situation in Belarus and does not pin much hope on beating Lukashenka. He told RFE/RL on 3 October that Belarus’s Central Election Commission will confirm any election result that Lukashenka dictates without actually bothering to count the votes. The real aim of his presidential bid, Milinkevich stressed, is to launch a wide “door-to-door campaign” to mobilize people and take them to the streets to defend “their dignity.” Regime change in Belarus, according to Milinkevich, can only occur following a wide popular protest, similar to Ukraine’s Orange Revolution of 2004.

Milinkevich said the 1-2 October congress in Minsk actually gathered all important democratic forces in Belarus, except for the Social Democratic Party, which is led by former Belarus State University rector Alyaksandr Kazulin. Milinkevich does not rule out that Kazulin or other opposition figures might run in the 2006 presidential election, claiming to represent the democratic opposition. Such a development, according to him, would be deplorable, since the opposition’s strength is in unity.

We don’t know all that much about him, but one thing that’s obvious is that he advocates a colored revolution to overthrow the Lukashenko government. Given that this must occur before the opposition can do anything else, they should focus on this one goal in order to remain united; otherwise, they’ll bicker over tiny details and break apart. Hopefully he’ll be the man to motivate enough of the public to take to the streets. That Milinkevich appears to be a very intelligent man who has for years been an advocate of civil society is very encouraging, but we still don’t know that much about him. RFE/RL held an interview with him immediately following the congress. Here’s the transcript:

RFE/RL: Mr. Milinkevich, do you think you have a chance of defeating Lukashenka?

Milinkevich: Ités impossible to beat Lukashenka in the elections, because we havenét had real elections in Belarus in a long time. We will use the elections — which are our constitutional right — to conduct a broad political campaign. We hope to win this campaign.

RFE/RL: All of Belarusian media is in the hands of the authorities. How do you plan to deliver your message to the voters?

Milinkevich: Ités really very difficult. For 10 years already, Belarusian politicians have not been allowed to use radio and television. Nobody ever sees them Äon TVÅ. So ités no wonder they have low ratings. But during these years of dictatorship, weéve learned how to use one very good method for making our case. It works even in the West and in democratic countries. It is delivering the message straight to peopleés doors.

RFE/RL: If any other candidate emerges claiming to represent a democratic alternative to Lukashenka, will you try persuade him to give up his candidacy on your behalf?

Milinkevich: It would be better if one candidate represents all the democratic forces and that was the aim of the congress Äthat elected MilinkevichÅ — to reduce the number of competitors. But we cannot prevent Lukashenka from providing candidates who would work for his sake.

RFE/RL: If you win, would you support Belarus joining the EU and NATO?

Milinkevich: We would like to preserve the current constitution and remain a neutral country. As concerns the EU, of course, cooperation with Europe is extremely important for us because the current regime has taken the country to a state of complete self-isolation.

RFE/RL: What is your attitude regarding a union with Russia?

Milinkevich: As concerns the union with Russia, we — including the Communists — think we should be a sovereign independent state that has very good relations and cooperates closely with Russia.

RFE/RL: What is your attitude towards privatization in the country, including the privatization of land?

Milinkevich: Privatization in Belarus will take place. It was frozen at one point because it was being handled by practically only one man — ÄLukashenkaÅ — and only for his own benefit. He privatized the country. Privatization is needed to give the country a new dynamic. As concerns land, we need to give land to private owners.

RFE/RL: What reforms should have priority in Belarus?

Milinkevich: The main thing is to bring Belarus back to the ranks of civilized countries. We need to restore independence of the three branches of power. We should give freedom to press, and we should start economic reforms.

It seems promising, though people from the ex-Soviet territories tend to speak about reform and democracy in broad instead of concrete terms. Again, that Milinkevich has been working to build civil society for over a decade is good because he has experience doing exactly what needs to be done.

He will need to launch an intense grassroots initiative over the next year, as the information blockade makes media attention relatively impossible. The purpose of this will be to bring out protestors when the count inevitably goes to Lukashenko. However, two scenarios will play out. In the case of mass protests, Lukashenko will likely give the order to use force. If the size of the protest is only several thousand people, it will be put down bloodily; but if it’s huge, the officers may refuse to shoot. In the latter case, external troops may be brought in. The problem is that all rallies start off small, so in the case that the number of protestors begins to grow dramatically, Lukashenko could easily put it down on the first day before it ever reaches a devastating number.

This is the kind of grim situation the opposition is in, but it is inevitable that they will clash with the government in the next year. Still, many surprises await us. Anything unexpected could happen in that period of time. Milinkevich could be jailed, Lukashenko could die of a heart attack, who knows? We’ll have to wait an see what happens, but this is certainly the beginning of a long-needed democratic movement.