I was sitting in a shisha bar with some friends the other night, and soon enough I was talking with my friend from Lebanon about the Mehlis report, the implications for Syria, and what will happen to President Lahoud. He is a Christian and a supporter of General Aoun’s Free Patriotic Movement and went out on the streets during the Cedar Revolution, so the topic always incites him (which is fine with me, who else am I going to discuss Lebanese politics with?). It was fun because I hadn’t written much about goings on there of late, and in particular, it got the juices flowing for a lot of coverage for when the Mehlis report is issued. The report will be issued to the Security Council on Oct. 21, and the Syrian propaganda machine is raging hard against it, as they know that it could potentially be the straw that breaks the camel’s back.

Syria’s propaganda war against the Mehlis mission climbed to a higher peak Tuesday, when the government-controlled Damascus daily Al Thawra charged that Mehlis had fallen victim of claims by a Syrian army deserter Mohammed Zohair Siddiq in the investigation.

Mehlis was reported to have interviewed Siddiq twice in Geneva before his September foray to Syria to question Syrian security officials who were serving in Lebanon when Hariri was killed by a one-ton bomb in Beirut Feb. 14.

Al Thawra claimed that Mehlis had told Premier Saniora and Lebanon’s Justice Minister Charles Rizk that he was unable to complete his investigation “in which politicians, legislators, governments as well as Arab and international media outfits have pumped politics at an unprecedented level in history.”

Syria’s contention is openly being propagated by its traditional Syrian allies, including Hizbullah. But opponents who make up the majority of Lebanon’s recently elected parliament led by Walid Jumblat and Saad Hariri insist that the Assad regime itself must be put behind bars if the Mehlis report indicts Syria.

It looks like the noose is getting tighter, and certainly the Assad government is in a frenzy. Those watching the situation are noticing that the assassination of Rafik Hariri, the Cedar Revolution, and the subsequent withdrawal from Lebanon by Syria wasn’t just a big setback for the regime, it was possibly the end of it. The Mehlis report will hasten its deterioration with the possibility of further global isolation and sanctions.

Christopher DeVito over at Foreign Policy emails me to an article he wrote in which he concludes:

If Assad continues to follow his assassination policy, or if the U.N. investigation implicates Damascus and its stooges in the Lebanese security services, Assad could very well lose his key Lebanese asset, President Lahoud. Losing Lahoud could spark a virtuous cycle of reform and reconciliation in the region. With Lahoud gone, the ascension of a president willing to disarm Hezbollah becomes increasingly feasible. Syria would then lose its only chit in its continuing conflict with Israel, thereby opening the possibility of a renewal of the Syria-Israel peace track.

With Syria blundering, Washington may be salivating at the prospect of pushing a teetering Assad from his perch. But the Bush administration would do best to let the current situation continue to unfold. For now, at least, Assad is doing enough to undermine himself. And, over the last nine months, the Lebanese have shown the world that, when pushed, they are willing to push back. Once again, the streets of Beirut have been filled with Lebanon????????s multiethnic crowds. They are united both by fury and by a vision of an independent, inclusive, and pluralistic Lebanese state. Syria????????s arrogance gave them both.

I think that’s right. The Assad government’s internal contradictions, compounded by international pressure and an awakening within the country to its incompetence. It has been able to survive so long simply because the status quo has never been challenged enough to bring it to the brink. The assassination of Rafik Hariri is seeing unprecedented justice being brought upon Syria now that the international community has the willpower to do something (as an aside, just look at what can be accomplished when America and France actually find something they agree about).

It just goes to show what can happen in a short period of time. Just a couple of years ago we were talking about the possibility of invading the country in order to bring down the government. It’s why I haven’t been reporting on the day-to-day of Lebanese politics here at Publius. It’s boring to analyze and write and the same thing over and over without much consequence, so I’ve been awaiting the Mehlis report with great interest. Ever since elections finished up back in June, there hasn’t been too much but talk about Mehlis this and Mehlis that. Now we can see the meat of it, and I think the ultimate conclusions, if conducted properly, will herald some shockwaves.

My friend thinks that the Assad government isn’t too long for this earth, but that Lahoud will remain in power until the end of his tensure. I’m not so sure. If the report is as damning as it assuredly will be, and if Lahoud is indicted directly for collaboration with Syria in Hariri’s assassination, there will be calls of treason that could lead to the last phase of the Cedar Revolution. Sweeping Lahoud from power alongside Assad would be finally end the undue influence that Syria holds, and it just may happen.