As the release of the Mehlis report edges closer, Bashar is beginning the process of elimination. That is, of those who would implicate his goverment. Ghazi Kanaan, the Syrian interior minister, has been found dead in his office with a bullet in his mouth.

President Assad’s Interior Minister General Ghazi Kanaan, who ruled Lebanon for years as Syria’s military intelligence chief, committed suicide Wednesday a few days ahead of the expected release of a U.N. report into the assassination of ex-Premier Rafik Hariri. He was 63.
Kanaan’s Aide-de-Camp Brigadier Walid Abaza told the Agence France Presse that Kanaan shot himself in the mouth at his office in the interior ministry building that overlooks the Barada river. “He left to go home then he came back after three quarters of an hour, took a gun from the drawer and fired a bullet into his mouth,” Abaza said.

But there was widespread speculation abroad that he was either murdered or forced to shoot himself in anticipation of his indictment by U.N. Chief Investigator Detlev Mehlis as the engineer of Hariri’s assassination.

Syria’s official news agency SANA said Authorities were investigating General Kanaan’s suicide.

Kanaan was military intelligence chief in Lebanon from the 1980s until 2003, presiding over Syria’s control of its neighboring country. He reportedly was questioned by U.N. investigators in the probe of Hariri’s murder.

Hours before he died, Kanaan contacted the Beirut Voice of Lebanon radio station and gave it a statement, concluding with the words: “I believe this is the last statement that I could make.” He asked seasoned interviewer ‘Wardeh’ to pass his comments to other broadcast media.

Kanaan said he was making the statement to ‘Wardeh’ to deny a report by another Beirut TV network, New TV, which said in its evening newscast Tuesday that Kanaan admitted to U.N. investigators that he was involved in money extortion and corruption during what he called ‘my reign of Lebanon.’

They are calling it a suicide, but the definition of suicide, as Tony puts it, is more like having it committed for him. It reminds me of when the former interior minister for Ukraine, Yuri Kravchenko, “committed suicide” before testifying about the death of journalist Georgiy Gongadze. Of course, he somehow had two bullets in his head.

Tony discussed a while back the possibility that Kanaan could have been the viable alternative to Assad once the government starts to crumble. It’s interesting that now, as the Mehlis report comes out soon and Bashar is sure to be accountable to some degree, the one of his only potential replacements is knocked off. Joshua Landis takes a look at this precise possibility.

Could Ghazi have been setting himself up as the alternative to Bashar? Could the Syrian government believe he might have been? We don’t know, but here goes the possible speculation. He is known to have had good relations with Washington, when he held the Lebanon portfolio. He visited DC. Two of his four sons went to George Washington University in DC.

Kanaan was reported to have been one of the “Old Guard” who spoke out against the extension of Emile Lahoud’s presidency in Lebanon, which set the stage for Lebanon’s Cedar revolution and the assassination of P.M. Rafiq Hariri. He had been one of the Syrians responsible for cultivating Hariri and building up his position in Lebanon. He was also accused of having significant business relations in Lebanon which tied him to Hariri. It is unlikely that he was involved in Hariri’s murder, having been a Hariri and not Lahoud supporter.

His relations with Lahoud were strained, and Lahoud reportedly was one of the people who insisted that he be removed from the Lebanon file and replaced by Rustum Ghazali. (Told me by Nick Blanford of the Christian Science Monitor, who is writing a book on Hariri.)

Since the June Baath Party Conference, it has been rumored that Ghazi would lose his Cabinet position as Minister of Interior, where he had been causing quite a ruckus.

Kanaan was the most senior Alawi official left in government of the Hafiz’s generation. He had served as an intelligence chief and minister of interior giving him influence over and knowledge of all branches of the security forces – intelligence and police. If Washington were to turn to anyone to carry out a coup against Bashar, it would have to place Ghazi Kanaan on the top of its list.

Could Kanaan have been assassinated in order to prevent him from challenging Bashar? We may never know, but it is possible.

He goes on to discuss why a real alternative to Assad, once his government goes down, is necessary to prevent chaos:

Bashar al-Asad has been clamping down on all possible rivals. Civil society has been all but silenced since the June Baath Party conference. The Atasi forum shut down. Evidently Anwar al-Bunni, Damascus’ leading civil rights lawyer and advocate is presently in hiding so he would be arrested. All emerging political movements have been broken up during the past several months. The Kurds are under intense pressure as are all Islamic organizations. Bashar’s strongest suit is that there is not alternative to his rule. Washington must either accept him as president or tempt the fates that Syria will collapse into some form of social chaos. Now that Ghazi Kanaan is no longer alive, it is hard to imagine another Alawi in the government who would have the authority, knowledge, or standing to pull off a coup.

I’ve always been curious why, after the end of the Cold War, western leaders have been put off by idea of military coups. I can’t imagine it could be worse than what happens under Bashar, and if it happens to be a something to the tune of what happened in Mauritania (though the end result is still to be seen), then all the better. There’s multiple possibilities that have to be looked at.

However, with Kanaan’s death, a coup backed by the military and the business elite looks more unlikely as Bashar once again narrows down his rivals. As Josh gets it, what happens is that the U.S. is stuck with Bashar or the possibility of complete chaos. What needs to happen is a transition, however rough it may be, because collapse would be a dangerous situation for all parties involved; from the Syrian people themselves, to the Lebanese, to the Iraqis, to the Americans. A last-minute coup supported by the business elite could propel the government in the right diection.

On the other hand, there is always the people power protesting opposition, which remains relatively weak, isolated, and based more on religious (Islamists) or ethnic (Kurds) grounds than liberal interests. I don’t think they’ll be able to garner the backing needed to be placed into power themselves, especially given the possibility of a short time period to work with but they could serve a definite supporting role to boost a new governing elite that would undoubtedly be much more liberal toward them than the current regime. There are actually many reform-minded business people, they’re just silent because they fear the government and they fear the potential collapse that pushing the status quo could bring.

In any case, I feel like I’m going on and on a bit. Point is, look for more of these things to be happening in the coming weeks as the Mehlis report comes out and the entire foundation of the Syrian regime is shaken to its core. Assad is clinging on like he’s mortally wounded (and he may be) so the pattern of political assassinations and idiotic rhetoric will only churn up.