As parliamentary elections on November 6 near, hardliners within the Azeri government are feeling the heat and are cracking down on reformers within their midst. This has culminated in the firing and arrest of Economic Development Minister Farhad Aliyev and his brother Rafiq Aliyev, who is the owner of Azpetrol, the biggest privately owned oil company in Azerbaijan.

In a surprise move, President Ilham Aliyev has fired Economic Development Minister Farhad Aliyev from his post. Law enforcement agencies sources have told EurasiaNet that both Aliyev and his brother, president of the Azpetrol oil company, have been arrested under suspicion of preparing a coup against the government.

In Farhad Aliyev????????s place, President Aliyev has appointed Heydar Babayev, head of the State Securities Committee of Azerbaijan, and a longtime political rival of the former economy minister.

Law enforcement agency sources, who requested anonymity, report that investigators suspect that Farhad Aliyev was working with opposition members to take control of Baku????????s airport upon the return of exiled Democratic Party of Azerbaijan Chairman Rasul Guliyev to Azerbaijan, originally scheduled for October 17. The government argues that Aliyev planned to then overthrow President Ilham Aliyev????????s administration and build a coalition government with the opposition Azadlig alliance, the country????????s largest opposition election bloc. ÄSee the EurasiaNet archive.Å Guliyev, a leader of the Azadlig alliance, remains in Ukraine pending an extradition request from Azerbaijan to stand trial on charges of embezzlement.

The charges against Aliyev are allegedly based on testimony by Fikret Yusifov, a former finance minister who was arrested the night of October 16/17 ÄSee the EurasiaNet archiveÅ, on the eve of Guliyev????????s planned return, and charged with arranging financing for opposition clashes against the police. Investigators allegedly also claim that documents detailing Farhad Aliyev????????s cooperation with the opposition were found in Yusifov????????s apartment.

Nijat Guliyev, a former minister of foreign economic relations, is also reportedly being asked to provide testimony to the national security ministry, and has been sentenced to 15 days???????? imprisonment on unclear charges.

Some law enforcement sources also report that representatives of Azen, a Turkish company with which Azpetrol, the firm run by Aliyev????????s brother, signed a production sharing agreement earlier this year, have also been placed under arrest. The agreement, ratified by parliament, concerned the management of one of Azerbaijan????????s largest onshore oil fields, Binagadineft.

Aliyev????????s arrest was carried out by Hilal Asadov, head of the anti-terrorism department of the Ministry of National Security. According to law enforcement sources, both Aliyev and his brother are being held in cells within the ministry.

The Ministry of National Security so far has made no official statements about the reported arrests. A statement is reportedly planned for October 20.

Representatives of the opposition Azadlig alliance, however, have denied that they have received any support from Farhad Aliyev or Fikret Yusifov. “This is idiocy. We have nothing to do with this case,” said Fuad Mustafayev, deputy chairman of the Popular Front Party, one of the members of the tripartite Azadlig bloc.

Mustafayev instead put the allegations down to an inner government struggle between Farhad Aliyev and other members of President Ilham Aliyev????????s administration. “One group defeated another. Farhad Aliyev tried to gain an image as a reformer in the government. But he did nothing to really change the situation in the economy. What we have seen today is a culmination of struggle between oligarchs,” Mustafayev said.

Mustafayev may be right about the inner struggle being simply between oligarchs, as all of them certainly are. But the difference is between who wins in this battle — the hardliners in the security apparatus or ministers who are more liberal. Certainly Rafiq Aliyev stood to make a fortune from the new gas pipeline and would have been a challenge to the government while Farhad Aliyev was known to disagree with the policies of the current government, and they are both known to be liberal compared to those currently in power. In fact, the government has fired and/or several other ministers within the past week, including former Finance Minister Fikrat Yusifov, former Foreign Trade Minister Nicat Quliyev, Health Minister Ali Insanov, and presidential administration official Akif Muradverdiyev.

Now, I have argued consistently that this is more than the normal “opposition vs. the government” deal we usually get. If free and fair elections are held that allow enough pro-democracy opposition candidates into parliament, there are reformers within the government who will work with them to bring about new policies and isolate the hardliners. Ever since May, the opposition has been able to demonstrate and therefore vastly increase its numbers. The hardliners in the government are worried and want to consolidate their power before it’s too late, so they’re starting by kicking out all of the potential “traitors” who would switch sides.

This is evident in the charges brought against these ministers. The government tends to refer to the opposition as not just planning a colored revolution, but an outright coup. That’s what these ministers are being accused of, because since they are willing to work with the opposition, they are simply coup plotters as well.

More of this could happen as the next two weeks go by, with the arrests of ministers and opposition members alike. With this action being taken, however, a slow evolution toward liberal democracy will be harder than ever, and a colored revolution all the more probable. The government is pushing the line right now, and with the government eliminating anyone the opposition could work with, this could turn into a winner-take-all scenario.