Felipe Calderon’s entry into the Mexican presidential race for 2006 creates a whole new dynamic in the election. It’s something I’ve believed since the beginning.

Calderon is from the right-leaning PAN party, same as incumbent President Vicente Fox, but he comes across as a different player because he wasn’t Fox’s choice as successor. Fox himself is viewed as a disappointment by many Mexicans for his failure to really reform the country. He’s not an utter disaster but there’s nothing worse than soured hopes from a man who was brought to office as Mexico’s first opposition candidate in over 70 years and who failed to live up to the promise of instigating a real democratic revolution. But perceptions of disapproval from Fox mean that Calderon has significant credibility among those who are alienated from Fox.

There are two interesting accounts out now about Calderon, and the impact he is making in this election. One is from The Economist and the other is from The Financial Times. Both are excellent. I will see what, if anything, might be gleaned from the Mexican blogosphere about this fresh new candidate who has at least a chance to beat left-leaning Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador when elections are held around mid-year in 2006.

To start:

Calderon’s entry is no wrap for the non-AMLO voters and, things will remain unpredictable. Boz has some analysis on AMLO’s gains in the north, a PAN stronghold, here.

Boz has some additional analysis here – I agree with all of it:

Calderon will definitely inject new life into the race. A mostly clean primary win really benefits his image (he????????ll be hit later because he was backed by the teacher????????s union, but that????????s not too much of an issue).

This past week AMLO told the PRI and PAN to unite against him and prevent an ???????electoral massacre???????. It was a cute line but shows some hubris. I think he????????ll be surprised that this race will be close.

From my side, I have nothing against AMLO winning (I actually see Madrazo as the worst of the candidates), but I think Calderon is the candidate that Mexico deserves to make this a good democratic race and give Mexican voters a real choice.

As a final side note, it????????s interesting that several times while writing this comment I almost referred to Calderon and Madrazo as the ???????opposition???????. Calderon is obviously with the party in government and Lopez Obrador is the party in opposition. However, AMLO has been the front runner for so long, that he????????s lost some of that upstart appeal and has really become the candidate to beat. Peaking too early may cost him now that there????????s a new candidate in the race.