Following the approval of the new Iraqi constitution despite opposition by the majority of Sunnis, Sunni Iraqi leaders are getting serious about the political process and their own stakes in the new Iraq. This past week a new Sunni coalition party was formed from three parties – the Iraqi People’s Conference, the Iraqi Islamic Party, and the National Dialogue Council. According to the Iraqi newspaper Al-Bawaba, which emphasized not once, but twice, that these were the Sunnis who benefited from Saddam Hussein’s rule, the new party would be called “The Iraqi Consensus Party.” It program is to encourage Sunnis to stop boycotting, stop the killing of Iraqis (without condemning attacks on Americans), and encourage the United States to withdraw its troops from Iraq.

There are also new developments in the alignments of the Shia parties. The ruling United Iraqi Alliance is losing popularity, while the secular party of former prime minister Iyad Allawi is getting stronger. The UIA is also undergoing a shakeup, with the militant Moqtada Sadr joining, and four liberal parties, including the Iraqi National Congress led by Ahmad Chalabi, leaving.

More details from a report by al-Hayat:

One the eve of the end of the period for registering the electoral lists tomorrow, three Sunni organizations announced a new coalition to enter into the elections, moving beyond their opposition to the results of the constitutional referendum, and hoping to focus on demanding the withdrawal of the American military, following the increase of pressure internally on the administration of President George Bush with the increase of the number of Americans killed beyond the 2,000 mark and the decline of his popularity to a very low average…

And within the context of the political process the Shia leader Moqtada Sadr announced that he would enter the elections in the Anbar in coalition with the Sunnis…. And following the failure of the Sunni attempts to defeat the constitution, the leaders of the Sunni parties declared the formation of a coalition to enter the December elections under the name “National Consensus Party.” The new coalition includes the Iraqi People’s Congress, the National Dialogue Council and the Islamic Party. The coalition encouraged Iraqis to reject any new call to boycott the political process…

The general secretary of the Islamic Party, Tariq Hashimi, said in a press conference held by the three parties “that a number of entities will enter into this front.” And he added that “participation in the election has become a national necessity and a legal necessity… and we wish all who do not participate in the electoral process and are still opposed to the principle of participation to understand that our project of rebirth and reform is not served by irresponsible speeches…”

Sunni leaders announce the formation of a new coalition to contest elections. (al-Sharq al-Awsat)

The news report by al-Sharq al-Awsat is shorter but also included the point that the three groups “decided to ‘leave the doors open for other political forces’ to join its coalition.” The article likewise noted Moqtada Sadr’s declared intention to coalition with the Sunnis.

Five points strike me as requiring emphasis here. First, note how opposition to the war at home encourages America’s enemies abroad, both the terrorists and the more pragmatic anti-American bloc. For those who opposed the invasion of Iraq, that debate is over. They need to bear in mind that the world can hear them, and it has an effect.

Second, at the same time, this is a “resistance” with which the United States can deal. If they want U.S. troops to leave, then they must actively support the Iraqization of the war against the jihadist groups. To the extent that U.S. troops are not needed in any given region, they can be withdrawn from that region. But no timetable should be set for withdrawal other than this – we’ll leave when the job is done.

Third, note that the points about Sadr coalitioning with the Sunnis is now being contradicted by a more recent report from al-Hayat, which I discuss below. It appears the that ruling United Iraqi Alliance coalition is undergoing a major shake-up, and that Sadr is joining it, while others are leaving.

Fourth, it is worth emphasizing that the Ayatollah Ali Sistani and the other grand ayatollahs are not endorsing a political party or coalition this time. I’ve long held a positive view of Sistani’s role in this process, going back to shortly after the fall of Saddam, but this is a good thing. It was good that Sistani endorsed the United Iraqi Alliance list back in January to get the process rolling, but the Shia don’t need guidance on this now.

Fifth, note the warning from the leaders of the new Sunni party to other Sunnis – you need to participate, and if you don’t, keep your mouths shut and stop saying irresponsible things.

The banner the girl is holding reads “Elect Iraq.” (Al-Bawaba)

Now that the registration deadline has passed, Al-Bawaba has published a report “The Most Prominent Parties and Blocs Competing in the Iraqi Elections” (descriptions below are from the article, I was not familiar with a few of the smaller groups):

• United Iraqi Alliance: ruling party, main parties are the Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq (SCIRI) and Dawa, newly joined by Moqtada Sadr’s faction (more on this below).
• The Kurdish Coalition: With the departure of the Kurdish Islamic Party (discussed below), this now just includes the National Kurdish Union led by Iraqi President Jalal Talibani and the Kurdish Democratic Party headed by Masud Barzani.
• The Iraqi National Accord: Secular Shia party led by former prime minister Iyad Allawi.
• Iraqi Consensus Party: New Sunni coalition discussed above.
• United Iraqi Front: Sunni party which boycotted the referendum and has called the results fraudulent.
• Iraqi National Congress: Secular Shia party led by Ahmad Chalabi, as discussed below, they have just left the ruling party.
• The Arab Accord: Arab nationalist group.
• The National Two Rivers Front: Christian party.

A few other parties are mentioned but with little or no description, and certainly with no chance of winning. These are the main parties above.

Al-Hayat is also reporting Monday on unexpected changes in the coalitions. First, it is reporting that the United Iraqi Alliance, the governing alliance which had contained several parties, is breaking up due to a loss of popularity and a shuffling of power within the coalition. The article reports that they are expected to only get half the support they received in the previous election, which was 48%, while the bloc led by former prime minister Iyad Allawi seems to have doubled in strength.

It is reported that Sadr’s group is now joining the UIA, which is not a good sign, and that it is being abandoned by four liberal parties, including that of Ahmad Chalabi. The article notes that it isn’t clear whether Chalabi and the other liberals left because Sadr was included, or whether this was part of their strategy, to separate themselves from the religious UIA, thus forcing an alliance of convenience between Sadr’s militant Shia party and the more moderate but nevertheless Islamist parties SCIRI and Dawa, which head the UIA. I’ll be returning to this issue.

The al-Hayat article also reports that the Kurdish Islamic Party has withdrawn from the previously united Kurdish list. So now there are two Kurdish factions; one secular two-party bloc, and one Islamic party on its own.

Each time Iraq has an election, a greater portion of the population becomes energized by the political process. This is to be expected. To the extent that some of the parties are hostile to the United States, that is to be expected as well. The rise and fall of the fortunes of the Islamist UIA and the secular Shia parties will be something I’ll be following closely through December.

Kirk H. Sowell, Arab World Analysis.com