Miguel Buitrago at the first-rate MABB blog has the whole dynamic explained. The short story is this: Based on current polls, far-left leader Evo Morales is in nearly a tie with his nearest rival. Due to how legislative seats are distributed in the Senate, Morales may not get the majority of votes he needs in the upper house of Congress to become president. In the lower house, the outcome is more uncertain.

If the polls are right, this is very good news in one sense – that Morales won’t be able to confiscate land and energy through the power of the state. Of course, the alternative is that Morales me feel aggrieved and instigate road-blocks. That could be another kind of trouble for Bolivia, but in my opinion it is not as bad as the first kind.

See what you think here.

UPDATE: Boz has some very good and interesting supporting analysis here.