Election results from Egypt’s first round of parliamentary elections are coming in, and due to the greater transparency and lesser violence than before, the Muslim Brotherhood took a big chunk of seats. Of course, there were instances of fraud, intimidation, and genereal irregularities, but they seem to be committed on an individual basis instead of being part of a widespread campaign. Members of the more liberal opposition, however, didn’t fair so well despite that the Al-Ghad party candidate, Ayman Nour, taking second place in the presidential election.
Egypt’s ruling party won 112 seats in the first stage of the country’s parliamentary elections, or about 70 percent of those available, according to final results announced Thursday.
Announcing the results, Justice Minister Mahmoud Abu el-Leil also confirmed that the banned Muslim Brotherhood, Egypt’s most powerful Islamic fundamentalist group, more than doubled its presence in parliament, winning 34 seats.
The ruling National Democratic Party acquired 112 seats out of the 164 contested seats in the first round, which entailed an initial vote Nov. 9 then a run-off Tuesday. Independents got 13 seats and three opposition parties won five seats ???????? two each to the centrist Wafd and leftist Tagammu parties and one to the centrist Ghad party.
The second round is to be held Sunday, followed by a final one Dec. 1, to determine the remainder of the 454-member parliament. Each stage is held in a different part of the country.
The NDP holds about 80 percent of seats in the current legislature and is expected to maintain its domination of the body. But the Brotherhood’s strong showing has surprised many and boosts its claims for becoming a legitimate political party, a step the government has long rejected.
Its representation could rise in the upcoming rounds. The Brotherhood, which was founded in 1928 and banned since 1954, holds 15 seats in the outgoing body. Its members run as independents, though their posters bear the Muslim Brotherhood name and slogan.
Results announced Wednesday on the semiofficial news agency MENA said the NDP had won 70 seats in the first round, but that number rose when 42 candidates who ran as independents joined the party immediately after their victories.
Turnout in the Nov. 9 round was 24.9 percent, Abu el-Leil said. Turnout was 23 percent in Tuesday’s run-off, which decided 133 districts where no candidate got a majority of the vote in the initial balloting.
What will be interesting to see now is how well the Muslim Brotherhood does in the next two rounds of parliamentary elections, due to be held this weekend and next weekend respectively. This Sunday in particular will be interesting because it is being held in Alexandria, known to be a stronghold for the group. If there is any point in which the government might get cold feet about this whole trying to have free elections business, it might be Sunday. The prospect of having a parliament with lots of members affiliated with the Muslim Brotherhood can’t be too appealing to the ruling NDP.
Due to constitutional amendments pushed through, however, the Muslim Brotherhood still will not be able to field a candidate under its party name since it is banned and its candidates run as independents. Under the amendment, only parties with 5% of the seats in parliament may field a candidate. The Muslim Brotherhood would therefore have to become unbanned first. Also, this amendment prevents others from running — like Ayman Nour, even though he got second — unless they have enough standing. Which they don’t.
The reason this is all interesting is because of how the Muslim Brotherhood will react to such large gains, and how the West will react in turn to that reaction. There seems to be a growing consensus in political circles about the feasibility of political, non-violent Islamic groups running and winning democratic elections. Already it looks like the Muslim Brotherhood is being much more conciliatory than usual so that the government won’t crack down on them before the elections are over. But once they’ve begun gaining power, and if they eventually usurp it from the NDP in the parliament, will their face change? Thsi is one of those tough questions that policy makers have to test and answer as Egypt’s political system begins opening up.
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