Miguel Buitrago has uncovered new polling numbers in Bolivia as the elections close in there in less than a month. He’s got terrific insights and observations about the narrowing lead of Evo Morales in the election, along with some anomalies we might not have expected, like the fact that Morales is doing well in Santa Cruz, a place we expected the opposition to take, and that Oruro, a very old traditional – and beautiful – mining town, expected to be a Morales stronghold, apparently is up for grabs.

Miguel suspects the government (I think that means non-Morales forces) to likely win the Senate, something that could make Morales think he once again was ‘cheated’ of the election. If that happens (and Alvicho has some good insights about this too), he’ll start more trouble. Miguel’s new poll numbers and chart are here.