News reports are indicating that all sects of Iraqi society are turning out to vote, including the Sunnis who have made due to come out in full force. Turnout is expected to be larger than in the previous two elections. What we will witness today is not only another historic event as we saw in January and October, but a complete redefinition of the Iraqi political landscape as we know it.

The January, 2005, assembly elections led to the utter domination of the parliament by just three parties, including the United Iraqi Alliance, the Democratic Patriotic Alliance of Kurdistan, and ex-PM Allawi’s Iraqi List. The Shiite United Iraqi Alliance gained 48.19% of the vote and teamed up with the Kurds, while Sunnis only had appointed representation due to a widespread boycott of the elections.

What’s different now? The reason that the United Iraqi Alliance did so well was because it was blessed by Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani, Iraq’s top Shiite cleric. Given the mediocre state of civil society and the basis of parties being generally ethnic or religious, the Shiites — consituting the largest group in the country — swarmed in support for the UIA. This time, the UIA will not fair nearly as well.

Al-Sistani did not endorse any party this time, and many Iraqis, including Shiites, want better rule than the religious UIA can offer. Moqtada al-Sadr has joined the UIA while the more liberal parties have left it. The Shiite community will prove to be much more divisible into areas of political belief and policy than simple religious dedication than many think.

Meanwhile, the Sunnis are undergoing their unification at the same time that the Shiites are undergoing fragmentation, turning out in full in order to push their issues forward. The Kurds, while likely to maintain a similar representational ratio, have split into two parties.

And perhaps the most interesting story has been the rise of ex-PM Allawi’s new secular coalition that has seen itself surging in strength over the past few months. His list includes both Sunnis and Shiites who are secular and focus more on policy than religious or ethnic ties. It is proving to be a popular mix.

With this election, it might be well and due to begin thinking of Iraqi politics in terms of actual politics instead of ethnic and religious divides. When the results are counted, I bet we will see a spectacular drop in the prominence of the Shiite religious parties, a major showing by the united Sunni parties, a split between the Kurds (except on major issues like autonomy), and a rise of secular and liberally minded parties like Allawi and Chalabi’s lists.

Previous posts on Iraq, many of which deal with these political dealings, can be found here.