Somewhat predictably, after the united opposition failed in its attempt to enact a colored revolution in Azerbaijan — or at least prevent voter fraud at the municipal level — it completely fell apart. This Eurasia Daily Monitor article goes into detail about how the Azadliq “Freedom” coalition has split up on the national level following two months of disputes about strategy, and how other parties have found themselves dissolving internally as well. It’s a must read article for understanding the nature of the post-election opposition movement.

This is what we could consider a classic case of what happens to a “negative coalition.” Basically, a negative coalition is a group that comes together united on the basis of opposing something, but not necessarily standing together on many issues. This leads to the group’s eventual disintegration, as they aren’t natural partners in governance. It doesn’t have to happen just because the coalition loses the election, however. Just look at Ukraine: it wasn’t long before the Orange Coalition broke up — and they won!

As for the Azadliq coalition, the reason this breakup is predictable is because we already knew beforehand that these groups didn’t really like each other much. Also, their defeat was pretty much assured, even discluding any voter fraud, because they aren’t very popular. It seems that the strategy of attempting a colored revolution backfired; instead of formulating an extensive and dedicated grassroots network, they tried to capsize an entire system without broad public support. This is where they differ with the Orange Coalition in Ukraine. Yushchenko actually had the support of the population, and PORA had thousands of activists engaged. Now that the Azeri opposition has been demolished, we’ll probably see, as the article predicts, the evolution of less radical movements that seek to change the system from the inside.