Iraq the Model is talking about the death, shortages, corruption, and scandals that are taking a huge toll on public opinion in the country. Omar, known pretty well for his optimism, says that, “it is a fact that it hasn????????t been this bad in Iraq ever since the 9th of April 2003.” While I’m not one to disparage what we’re doing to build a healthy democracy in the country, it’s not easy to take a romanticized view of what’s going on and what it takes to solve these problems.

I wrote many times, with much alarm, about the electoral violations during and after the December 15 election, not because I wanted to say “told you so” like so many on the left, but because we’re supposed to be preventing that from happening. Omar writes that the electoral commission, now that international monitors are investigating the situation, has had to come out and say that, in fact, fraud was committed all over the place and that it will take more time before the final results can be announced. Also, several civil society groups are about to present evidence of these violations. Here’s the story:

Going back to the election results, the election commission admitted that fraud did take place in several regions ???????because many election officials were not well trained and many acted by their sectarian emotions but fraud wasn????????t extensive??????? and Ferid Ayar told al-Sabah yesterday that ???????it was technically impossible to monitor all 33000 voting stations nationwide??????? announced that final results will be announced four days from now but that verified, certified results announcement will take 2-3 more weeks, putting in consideration that the international team of monitors said they????????d need at least two weeks to finish their job.

A gathering of Iraqi civil society organizations announced yesterday that they intend to present the fraud evidence they collected to the investigation team. Adnan Abdulaziz, a spokesman of the gathering revealed that they have counted more than 6000 incidents of fraud and electoral violations but they????????re going to present only 1600 of them since those are the ones supported with strong evidence.
The violations included misuse of authority by government officials and security forces to campaign in favor of certain lists.
Abdulaziz added that they even have a video in which a convoy of police vehicles was used in the campaign of a certain list.

The election commission is also coming under attack from al-Mada paper, the respectable newspaper has published a lengthy report supported with names, dates and figures that accuses top commission officials of corruption and skimming million of dollars from the money that was allocated for media campaigns that were conducted shortly before the January and December election.

And outside of the election campaign, of course, corruption at the highest levels of the Interior and Defense Ministries, along with blatant sectarianism employed against well-qualified Sunnis for government positions. Army Lt. Gen. John R. Vines doesn’t seem to think very much of them either.

It’s hard not to be disheartened about the post-election process, with all of its stalled negotiations, revelations of corruption and fraud, and dashed hopes. But this is just looking at one part of the equation. As I predicted after the election, we are making huge inroads with the insurgency, drawing these groups into the political process. As the New York Times Äis forced toÅ reports, the Sunni insurgency that simply wants the U.S. out of Iraq has full-fledged broken with the jihadi elements among them.

BAGHDAD, Iraq, Jan. 6 – American officials are talking with local Iraqi insurgent leaders to exploit a rift that has opened between homegrown insurgents and radical groups like Al Qaeda, and to draw the local leaders into the political process, according to a Western diplomat, an Iraqi political leader and an Iraqi insurgent leader.

Clashes between Iraqi groups and Al Qaeda have broken out in several cities across the Sunni Triangle, including Taji, Yusefiya, Qaim and Ramadi, and they appear to have intensified in recent months, according to interviews with insurgents and with American and Iraqi officials.

In an interview on Friday, a Western diplomat who supports the talks said that the Americans had opened face-to-face discussions with insurgents in the field, and that they were communicating with senior insurgent leaders through intermediaries.

The diplomat said the goal was to take advantage of rifts in the insurgency, particularly between local groups, whose main goal is to expel American forces, and the more radical groups, like Al Qaeda, which have alienated many Iraqis by the mass killing of Iraqi civilians.

The talks, which the diplomat said were taking place “inside and outside Iraq,” began in the fall, around the time of the referendum on the new Iraqi constitution on Oct. 15. American officials had made contact with insurgent groups before, but the diplomat described the new engagement as much more significant.

But we have known that this process has been going on for months, and it is now coming to the forefront that the unholy alliance is breaking. The Sunnis will be given political incentives to continue this break, seeing that it is to their advantage to do so, and the neutral/sympathetic Sunni population will turn against the jihadis, forcing them out of cover. Think of it this way. Until now, we’ve been popping pimples, but they keep coming back. But this way, the skin itself will be forcing out all the toxins. It’s all counter-insurgency 101. Perhaps the best thing we can take from Omar’s article is that the leadership of the Sunni parties have been put into the position of denouncing the huge violence these past few days. The community will take cue.

Also, another good thing is being revealed in the midst of this deep political controversy. Even though people are quickly losing faith in the ineptitude of their leaders, civil society and the vastly important institutions that hold government accountable are quickly taking shape — perhaps even moreso than I thought. The fact that enough pressure can be applied to force a government in the Middle East to admit against its will that fraud was committed, that a band of groups can quickly acquire hard evidence of this, and that there are already respectable newspapers capable of investigating government corruption testifies to the incredible progress that the country has undergone.

The prerogative of any political party is obtaining power; and in a place like Iraq, it is not necessarily to serve the national interest but instead that of a very narrow tribal or sectarian constituency. That’s why I fully believe that the religious Shia United Iraqi Alliance would what it could get away with to make sure its seat numbers don’t decrease dramatically. This includes the sway it holds over the election commission. This poses the problem that, regardless of how disappointed Iraqis are with their political leaders, that they won’t be able to vote them out of office as democracy promises. However, with the check of a growing civil society and independent information, fuller transparency and less corruption seem to be on the horizon, with these institutions ensuring that democracy really does work in the end.