As part of my previous explication of the Hungarian political parties, and in order to convey how the parties involved are pretty counter-intuitive to American standards, I????????m presenting excerpted transcriptions of speeches regarding the upcoming elections. The first is by Viktor Orb????n, head of FIDESZ, who is presenting his eighth ???????state of the country??????? address ???????? looks and sounds a little like a more-populist, slightly sexier Al Gore. The second is a reply to Orb????n the following day by Ferenc Gyurcs????ny of the MSZP ???????? imagine a sort an even-more-bloodless Bill Gates figure, prone to seriously stick his foot in his mouth. As can be seen in the comments to my last post, tensions run high, and attitudes among the politically active are just as hardened as in the US, if not more so. Since Gyurcs????ny is giving the reply, he is at a rhetorical advantage in this exchange: this does not mean that I endorse him (or any of the parties, for that matter).

At some point, matters such as this will become ???????business as usual??????? politics??????? but while the stability of Europe is in question, particularly regarding power questions among the EU aspirants vis-?????? -vis Russia (with Ukraine currently incapable of even meeting application standards), political trends in East-Central Europe bear very close watching.

Hat tip: Index.hu, one of the very few free online Hungarian news sources, also for this side-by-side summary (in Hungarian), with a conclusion that *will* be familiar to outsiders, which is that the candidates seem to be talking about two completely different countries.

Viktor Orb????n, FIDESZ, January 29.

Orb????n: The government only makes promises or chases Fidesz. (Ed: referring to tit-for-tat corruption investigations which are endemic to Hungarian politics.)

???????Luxury politics are dangerous because they produce privileges.???????
(Starts by showing the audience a short film about his tour of the country.)

??????? Hungary is like a kid who is made to stand by the doorframe to get measured. ???????Earlier he had to pretend he????????s smaller, other times he was measured using false measurements. Now he seems bigger than the doorframe, even,??????? but during the tour of the countryside ???????we discovered that it was the house which had gotten smaller.???????
??????? Hungary has participated in a race, but it only managed to be left behind.
??????? 2005 marks the ???????year of acquiescence,??????? with people resigned to an attitude of ???????today is only a little bit worse than yesterday,??????? which does not even think about winning ???????even though we were first amongst the new EU members four years ago.???????
??????? Between 1998-2002 (Ed. ???????? when FIDESZ was in government), there was the bridge to P????rk????ny (Ed. ???????? between the city of Esztergom and Slovakia ???????? this is a big deal), the Budapest Sports Arena, tax breaks for parents with children, the National Theatre, etc. ???????? for these achievements ???????we did not have to take anything away from anybody.???????
??????? ???????This government knows only this much: to make promises or chase after FIDESZ.??????? They think as if ???????defeat is part of life ???????? it makes us more mature over time.??????? We are no longer young, so they are always right.
??????? What Orb????n is told by Hungarians??????? from an unemployed man in Domb????v????r: ???????Luxury politics are dangerous because they produce privileges.??????? By a railroad worker in Szentes: ???????First they were pampered by power, then by billions Äof forints.Å??????? Orb????n: ???????The working man has only ever been able to count on himself.??????? From somebody in P????cs: ???????In 2006 the main question is whether we turn where the road turns, or we keep going, straight into the wall.???????
??????? ???????We keep taking the wrong turns with the bus.??????? 700,000 people in Hungary are unemployed. (Ed. ???????? 7.3% unemployment nationwide.) Working and living well no longer go together, and people cannot live from honest work: Hungarians need a ???????work-based economy.???????
??????? Promised to reduce TB (Ed. ???????? ???????Society Insurance??????? roughly equivalent to Social Security taxes) to 19% from 29%. Since there will be more jobs, more tax revenue will result.
??????? Agricultural reforms: ???????the only way out is to nominate an agricultural minister from the ???????society of landowners.???????? ???????
??????? 20% of ???????young people??????? cannot get work. A woman on stage (R????ka) worries because lots of her classmates go abroad after finishing school. This is a problem, if they need to go. They always should come back home. We need high wages for good quality work to solve joblessness, not simply unemployment money.
??????? Owning a car is like a luxury now; lots of people live in places where there????????s no work, so they have to drive a lot. Wants to cut their expenses.
??????? Family ???????? ???????Women would have more children if they lived better.???????
??????? A young Roma (Ed- i.e., gypsy) man on stage: he heard that the SZDSZ wants to remove Roma children from their families. He also says that he doesn????????t dare tell his parents how high the gas bill is. Orb????n: the Roma community could rise through school and work, ???????but for this the economy needs to create jobs.??????? For instance, FIDESZ would again make child allowances connected to education. ???????I do not believe in uniform solutions??????? ???????? so in some communities there would be separate Roma schools, and in others they would be integrated.
??????? ???????A grandmother???????: worried about families ???????? children can only get by if they get support from grandparents.
??????? Orb????n: FIDESZ will protect the week and children, etc., by making the law stricter.
??????? Luxury: Everything is more expensive, proportionally more of the salary goes to gas, water, electricity, etc., than in Western Europe. ???????We need to break the luxury profit.??????? If there????????ll be a political change in the spring, the bills will be smaller.
??????? Healthcare: No hospital privatizations. ???????The state cannot surrender its citizens to business interests.??????? But there can be private hospitals ???????if they are worth it.???????
??????? Home-ownership: ???????we say it boldly: our goal is for everyone to have their own home.???????
??????? High-interest problems. Owning a house cannot be just a luxury or the goal of an entire life????????s work. ???????Let????????s not touch what is working.??????? According to Orb????n, the current government messed up the system of home loans. FIDESZ would restore the previous home loan program.
??????? In closing: ???????We forgot that we Hungarians cannot only count on ourselves alone, but on each other. We lost the Hungarian solidarity even though this is one of the fundamentals of Christianity. There has to be a place in the world where Hungarians have the advantage over all other nations???????? sons.??????? ÄLONG applauseÅ The next government has to be the government of Hungarian solidarity. ???????It is not normal if in a country, foreigners have the advantage over those at home. We do not expect from any other country to favor us over their own. The question is whether to choose Hungarian solidarity or the ???????indifferent wild capitalism.???????? ???????

Ferenc Gyurcs????ny, MSZP, January 30.

Response to Orb????n during a Monday parliamentary session:
??????? ???????The prime minister????????s duty is to come here to the Parliament and give account on what????????s working, and what????????s not.???????
??????? Our nation is ???????accepting and successful.??????? During the past four years, salary grown was exceptional, ???????the best yet,??????? particularly for health, education, and social workers. Pension value has increased by more than 25%. Child support allowances grew per child. ???????A state should not grow differences between salaries, but rather diminish them.???????
??????? The Forint became stable, and taxes were lowered. In 2002, from every hundred forints???????? salary, the state received 55-56 forints. That figure, in Jan. of 2006, is down to 50.80 per hundred.
??????? Other positive results: a new home-loan program, and highway construction. ???????There????????s only one country in Europe that builds five freeways at the same time.??????? Agricultural support has been doubled, schools and hospitals have been renovated, there are new 911 stations, etcetera. At least 30 settlements where there????????s local construction are mentioned by name.

Problems

??????? Mot of the new investments were financed by state loans. 280,000 jobs were lost during the past four years, and 76,000 additional jobs are ???????in the balance.??????? ???????While there????????s even one man who????????d like to work, but cannot, we can????????t rest.???????

Successes

??????? Foreign Policy and the EU, Far-Asian relations, and the anticipation of a successful resolution of situation in the Balkans. On the home front, there is no way back to socialism, or forward to a ???????bourgeois socialism,??????? either.
??????? Gyurcs????ny wants ???????a strong Hungary.??????? Only its citizens can make Hungary stronger; the government cannot do more, as ???????we are Hungary.??????? Wealthy people should shoulder most of the responsibility, but one cannot build a successful Hungary out of ???????irresponsible promises made to harm taxpayers.??????? The MSZP does not want to harm the Republic just to keep power.

Reform Goals
??????? Thorough reform in state administration, in healthcare, in regional cooperation efforts.
??????? New laws protecting workers, such as wage insurance: if someone????????s entire workplace shuts down, the final pay is immediately paid by government.
??????? Creation of a Bank of Hungarian Entrepreneurs to develop small and medium businesses.
??????? ü???????In the next 6-7 years we can build so much more than we did after 1867 last time??????? 200,000 jobs (at a cost of roughly 650-700 billion HUF)
??????? ???????Reducing taxes and Äadding taxÅ allowances is not a tool, it just creates more risks.???????
??????? ???????Our most important resource??????? is the pool of talented and ambitious Hungarians. He has invited people to Parliament who are successful because they are doing things. ???????6-7 everyday people who are not participating in meetings to tell how hard it is, but to ask questions. The country is not black and white.???????
??????? ???????Instead of radicalism, we need quiet. We????????re preparing for elections. I ask for us to play fair, and I promise to play fair.???????
??????? The question is whether we go forward or turn back. The country is tired of partisanship.

————
The basic issue as summed up by Index????????s editors is right: it very much sounds like they????????re talking about two countries.

The trick of the matter is, that in a way they are??????? just as in the rest of the nations undergoing transition to a normal situation after Communist and Socialist governance, the country has quite a number of people who are doing well, and also very many who are doing poorly??????? but again, look at how this stacks up: all the regular ideological lines one would expect on the American side of ???????the pond??????? aren????????t there. Viktor Orb????ns???????? rails against the heavy ???????deadening hand??????? of taxation, which is a severe issue for the average Hungarian simply trying to get by. An example I have heard is that a flower shop — which are far more common, and busier, in Hungary than in the US — is a really good business to run, because it????????s much easier to cheat on taxes and thus get by, since customers don????????t often ask for receipts. But at the same time, Orb????n????????s promises are as populist as they get. Gyurc????ny????????s reply lays out macro-economic progress being made (notably ignoring the issue of prices relative to individual salaries), and touts the gradually-diminishing burden of the State, but certainly doesn????????t shy away from criticizing tax cuts. Hayek, Laffer, the Reagan Revolution, the Irish economic miracle??????? these are nowhere to be found onstage.

However, with the SZDSZ completely dependent upon the MSZP as a senior coalition partner, and the MDF expected to have to scramble merely in order to survive as a parliamentary party, these two parties are the only real ???????game in town.??????? The Parliamentary system will give the two minor parties a chance to work the corners, but Orb????n and Gyurcs????ny????????s call for ???????solidarity??????? and ???????quiet??????? -mandatory in the current hyper-politicized environment-mask very real policy differences that are not going to go away any time soon, and are unlikely to produce anything but extreme tension without meaningful prospect for reform if the two parties wind up in ???????Grand Coalition??????? as in Germany. For the country to *actually* move forward, one or the other must figure out how to wind up on top.