The Shia-based United Iraq Alliance finally made its nomination for prime minister evident, voting by an inter-party margin of one vote to choose current Prime Minister Jaafari to lead the country’s first democratically elected government. I think the choice could end up in a stalemate, with a new candidate eventually having to be proposed. Iraq the Model has thoughts on the matter, ultimately concluding that it’s too early to speculate too much — but that won’t stop me!

Iraq’s ruling Shia coalition announced yesterday it had chosen incumbent Ibrahim al-Jaafari as its candidate for prime minister, clearing the way for negotiations that should end with the formation of a government within three months.

The decision may be received with disappointment in Washington and London, where Adel Abdal Mahdi, Mr Jaafari’s rival and former Marxist-turned-free-marketeer, was popular. US authorities had hoped the government would bring together Iraq’s Shia Muslim, Sunni Arab and Kurdish leaders and help reduce the violence.

But the return of the Daawa party incumbent may make it more difficult to shake up the Shia-led cabinet that had been widely viewed as divisive and ineffective before December’s elections.

Mr Jaafari won 64 votes in a poll of the 128 newly elected parliamentarians of the United Iraqi Alliance, beating Mr Abdal Mahdi, current vice-president and a leader of Supreme Council for Islamic Revolution in Iraq – a rival to Daawa within the UIA – by just one vote.

I’m not exactly a fan of Jaafari. And I’m especially not a fan of the UIA. According to the constitution, however, they get to make the nomination for prime minister since they are the coalition that received the most votes. So now there’s a three month deadline for the parliament to approve the nomination. Thing is, it seems like everyone else is ready for a change to more efficient, less corrupt, less sectarian governance.

Iraq got a lot of the opposite under Jaafari. Lots of money wasted and lots of sectarian violence committed by militias aligned to the UIA parties. A big worry for everyone else must be that the feverish Muqtada al-Sadr supported Jaafari’s nomination. Al-Sadr is a force to be reckoned with, and he’s a force that takes a lot of positions that many in the rest of Iraq’s political spectrum highly disagree with. For example, he is against allowing Ayad Allawi’s secular list into the government, but even the Kurds have said that they will only work with a government that includes him. In the end, the UIA might have to choose a different candidate, one that is more agreeable to the rest of the country.

I can’t wait to see what happens. The developments so far clearly indicate an environment that fosters negotiation between parties, which means the likelihood of concessions or moderation on behalf of the UIA is likely especially given its own internal divisions. I think the most important thing that needs to happen is the cleaning up and secularization of the Interior Ministry so that sectarian violence can complete its calm-down. Although the UIA opposes it, perhaps Allawi would be the best fit for this post.