With a presidential “election” just over two weeks away, things are worse in Belarus than they usually are. The opposition is gearing up for the fight of its life, uniting behind a single candidate for the first time. President Lukashenko, on the other hand, is ready to kill them if he has to. Or at least beat them and fire in their general direction. The formidable br23 blog reports in more detail than Reuters ever could about the arrest and beating of one of the opposition candidates, Alexander Kazulin. The details are simply hard to imagine.

Afterward, the main opposition candidate Alexander Milinkevich staged a rally in Minsk. A few thousand people showed up, which really blows my mind, because that must be the largest number of people I’ve heard of gathering for a protest — or being able to — in at least a year. Riot police usually arrest dozens of people and beat even more with batons. Lukashenko has been foaming at the mouth about a potential “colored revolution” like what happened in Ukraine and has insisted the the opposition is planning to stage a coup. Overall it’s a campaign to discredit the opposition even though Milinkevich has insisted that he and his supporters will not try to overthrow the government with a colored revolution. Given that the state controls most of the media, it has probably had some effect.

The real problem for the opposition is that Lukashenko’s legitimacy is not based on the ballot box, but by bread. As Radio Free Europe explains, people in Belarus mainly want stability, especially in the economy. And it’s true that people in Belarus are making more than they were a few years ago. However, this is mostly due to state funded pensions and state controlled industries, along with enormous gas subsidies from Russia. Lukashenko himself has admitted before that the state controlled industries don’t have any more juice to squeeze from them. An economic slowdown, which is destined eventually, would do a lot of good in toppling him. That day has been offset by Russia pushing down the price of natural gas exported there, keeping costs down. Freedom takes second string.

What the opposition needs to do is continue knocking on people’s doors, making connections, and explaining their message. That message should be that the only reason they have to rely on Lukashenko so much for economic stability is because it is he who created the currently squalid conditions. People need to be convinced that it is because of him that they are not living better lives.

Perhaps it’s a bit sadistic to think this, but because of Kozulin’s arrest, the opposition will probably unite even more. Not just against the dictatorship and its abuses, but because criminal charges will force Kozulin out of the race and Milinkevich will be the only big alternative left. Seeing what just happened, though, let’s hope he makes it through this safe as well. Seeing as Lukashenko is ready and willing to do anything it takes to hold power, I wouldn’t hope for a colored revolution this time around. But he can’t last forever.

*****

Tobias Ljungvall talks about the campaign and government shenanigans.

br23 has much more, just scroll.

The BEING HAD Times is also a must-scroller.