Tens of thousands of demonstrators are gathering in Royal Square in Bangkok at this very moment, calling from Prime Minister Thaksin to resign over a deal that sold off Thailand’s largest telecommunications company to a Singapore firm that netted his family $1.7 billion in profits due to the use of tax loopholes. The protest could gain to hundreds of thousands, even higher than other protests that have been ongoing in the past several weeks. Even the Dharma Army, a foundation of monks tens of thousands strong that helped topple the 1990’s military dictatorship, has joined in and is vowing not to leave until Thaksin resigns.

After the massive protests originally began, Thaksin decided to call snap elections in order to reaffirm his legitimacy and has vowed to step down if his party doesn’t get at least 50% of the vote. He has also said that afterward he will hold a constitutional referendum after dailoguing with all groups, and then hold new elections after that as well. Due to questions about his tendency toward authoritarianism, he has said that if the people want a weaker government, then they’ll get it.

However, the opposition has decided to boycott as they know it’s a competition they cannot win. Thaksin is geniunely popular among the rural poor, which is about 70% of all Thai people, especially due to his economically populist policies. If elections were free, fair, and transparent, he would likely win handily. What’s an urban elite and minority middle class to do?

The case against Thaksin is strong. He has appointed political cronies into sensitive positions in the government, such as the Central Electoral Commission that verifies the election process. Vote buying is also a huge problem in Thailand, something Thaksin has certainly done and certainly has the money to do. He has also reneged on many election promises. For example, he promised to bolster the rural poor, but the gap between the rich and the poor has increased. He also promised a return to pre-crisis economic growth, whereas Thailand is below the average for growth in the region. Preventing the government from selling off companies to foreign government was also a key election issue, but of course it is the issue he is now accused most of violating.

In terms of fairness, his Shin Corp owns the only non-governmental television station in the country, which prevent the opposition from getting its message out to the masses. Also, just before calling the new election, he raised the minimum wage for rural workers, essentially buying them with state money. The opposition also has had no time to organize itself coherently, having less than a month before going to the polls.

In this Thaksin has outmaneuvered his rivals decisively. Both he and the opposition agree that his legitimacy is the central issue of the campaign, but this is not to the opposition’s advantage. They need to convince the rural poor that Thaksin has betrayed their interests and that corruption in the government really is a big deal. Because right now they just don’t care and removing Thaksin will not create the checks and balances that will prevent a future leader from doing the same thing. That’s what Thailand really needs more than anything. If the opposition wants to succeed, since the constitution will go to referendum, it should focus on securing public support for its reforms that will prevent the government from abusing its power.

And while the case against Thaksin is strong, the case for a people power revolution is weak. The opposition needs to get critical structural issues in the government and constitution fixed instead of just focusing on one man. However, as long as the protests remain peaceful (some have said they might use militant action, even though the police have been ordered to refrain from confronting demonstrators), then they should definitely be used to pressure the government and call the public’s attention. At the moment, however, they’re simply missing the point.