The ongoing protests in Belarus since Sunday leave much to be desired; that is, if you’re expecting a colored revolution immediately. Sunday saw well over 10,000 people rallying in October Square, about half that on Monday, and slightly more on Tuesday. You really can’t help but be down on it — the chances are slim to none. The mainstream media especially is hedging its bets against the protestors based on the dwindling numbers.

Due to ongoing news coverage, I haven’t really been able to get my thoughts down completely. Here they are. Though there may not be a revolution, here is why you should have hope.

The reason there are only a few hundred people left on the square is because those are the most fearless, most adamant demonstrators who have vowed to hold the square. Milinkevich has announced that Saturday, March 25, will be the day when everyone will return to the square. No matter what the immediate result, it will not be a finale, but the beginning of Lukashenko’s end. While the press is pessimistic on the numbers, it doesn’t go into the reasons why this is so. I’m not sure if these writers assume that Belarus is a country where people can freely organize or what, but there are many strategic factors impeding the protest.

Lukashenko has taken up a strategy rather different than that of Ukraine’s Kuchma — where the crowds were actually allowed to gather — or Uzbekistan’s Karimov — where the crowd was massacred. Instead of breaking up the protestors, he is simply blockading them. Riot police were sent to all surrounding neighborhoods to prevent anyone from joining the protest or bring the current demonstrators food. Likewise, if anyone left the protest, they’d be arrested immediately and not allowed to return. Police were also stationed at the train terminals, searching anyone who might have a tent or other materials that would help the opposition. That’s why the protest never grew to more than 7000 at time — nobody was allowed to join!

However, something can be said about the number of people trying to join. All of the people on October Square has friends and relatives trying to bring them food and warm things. Cars driving by honked in solidarity with them (the police are now fining people for this). Though the television is completely owned by the state and constantly broadcasted pro-Lukashenko propaganda, radio, internet, telephone, and word of mouth got out news about the demonstration and opposers to Lukashenko’s rule slowly began to stream in from the outlaying regions. But they were stopped.

The real number of protestors are much greater than those who have physically been able to make it to the square. Due to the tactics that Lukashenko employs, and his overwhelming control of most media, he is able to make it appear to most people that the opposition rally is so “pathetic” that he isn’t even going to bother to clear them off the square.

Oppositionists have learned from the police tactics as well, however. Instead of trying to dodge police to get to the square in order to deliver supplies, they simply fly past it in their cars and throw them out the window. Others blend into the crowd so that they aren’t caught. The amount of chatter itself that has been able to circumvent Lukashenko’s censors has generated a movement behind the scenes of October Square itself.

The reason for the break is so the vast majority of supporters can go home, rest up, and organize more people. Whether or not March 25 will be successful is highly dependent on how far the police will go to prevent people from reaching the square. I highly doubt Lukashenko will massacre them — he is so highly backed by Russia, that the international outcry could not help but reach Putin’s doorstep. However, they will pull out all the stops. Trains will be cancelled, checkpoints will be set up, and stragglers will be secretly arrested. It is very important that they leave so that they can get the word out and organize more people, but the police will do everything they can to prevent them from returning so that they can pronounce the revolution a failure.

In the end, there is a very hopeful lesson to be learned from all of this. In just one year, Belarus has changed profoundly despite the actions of the regime. The rally on March 25 of last year was only able to bring out 300-400 people before the police beat and arrested dozens of them, including women. Protests then were short-lived phenomena. Because the protestors have been allowed to gather at all, the veil of fear has been lifted. People are actively organizing against the regime and taking moral fortitude in doing so. They are also making connections — friends — with one another for the future. Never before had anyone known who was on their side. Now they know that, in the very least, there are tens of thousands of people that they saw and met who stand with them.

That is why, while a colored revolution might not happen this time around, it is the beginning of the end for Lukashenko. It was the “Ukraine without Kuchma” movement in Ukraine at the turn of the millenium that, while numbering only a few thousand protestors, launched the behind-the-scenes campaign that soon resonated with the people and delivered the Orange Revolution only a few years later. The protests in October Square may be the beginning of just such an era.

One thing is for sure though. After this, Lukashenko will never be able to rule the same again.

*****

Just to give you an idea of the kind of support the protestors remaining on the square are getting, here is some of the latest news and translations.

Ivan Lenin translates reports from Radio Svaboda saying that around 10:00 p.m. today, there were around 3000 gatherers on the square offering support. People continued to bring food and hot liquids to them so that they can remain with their vigil. They were also able to sneak a few tents past the police blockade. There is also no more talk of leaving; they are there until the end. The weather has also improved somewhat and is actually looking to be much warmer by Saturday.

He also translates from LiveJournal user Lipski who says that people continue to avoid the police and bring food. Most importantly, there are a lot of such people.

Neeka is also diving into the Belorussian LiveJournals and finds stories of busloads of activists dashing out of buses to the square so as to avoid the police and bring supplies. Charter 97 further indicates that they will remain until the 25th.

The international community has been doing a lot, besides the threat of sanctions against the government, to encourage the activists to get out on the square. Poland has promised admission in its universities to any Belorussian student expelled because of political activities. The EU will also be extending sanctions far beyond that of top government officials. Those who will not be permitted to travel to Europe will include university officials in charge of expulsions, those involved in forging the vote count, and those who fired people for participating in the demonstrations.