Parliamentary elections held in Ukraine yesterday ushered in the resurgence of the Regions of Ukraine bloc, led by former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich. Pundits are mockingly calling it the ???????Blue Revolution,??????? and after seeing over half the results counted, one would be hard-pressed to deny that Yanukovich has adapted to the new environment and has become an adept politician on his own ???????? with the help of a few American PR firms and a campaign style similar to the old Orange one of 2004. He has changed positions, calling for Ukraine to join the EU and serve as a bridge between Europe and Russia.

Yet because of the immense amount of corruption and electoral scandals that occurred under Yanukovich, many want to see the Orange coalition rebuild itself so as to prevent a backslide in the reforms that have been undertaken since early 2005. The emergence of Yulia Tymoshenko????????s bloc with some 23% of the vote over President Yuschenko????????s bloc, which won only 16%, shows that she has become the more senior partner in a possible parliamentary coalition. Combined with a minor partner, the Socialists, they could beat out Yanukovich and form the next government.

However, there are still major disagreements between the two and Yushchenko has not ruled out a possible coalition with Yanukovich himself. Tymoshenko????????s often-times populist policies, including price controls re-privatizations that led to small economic crises and a slowdown in overall economic growth, contradict greatly with Yushchenko????????s pro-market stance. So while Tymoshenko may be calling for the quick formation of a new government so as ???????not to further disillusion the people,??????? I would be surprised if he agrees.

It must be remembered that this is all occurring within the backdrop of the new constitutional changes, which establishes a parliamentary system. The old system allowed the president to appoint and sack the prime minister, but now the prime minister????????s position is clearly based on malleable coalitions based on negotiations between parliamentary blocs.

This means that a renewed Orange coalition will likely take a distinctly populist tone, what with Yulia Tymoshenko????????s bloc and the Socialists making up a large portion of the coalition. Furthermore, a coalition between Yushchenko????????s bloc and Yanukovich????????s bloc will take a tone based largely on the latter????????s positions. Yushchenko????????s Our Ukraine party will serve as something of a largely moderating and pragmatic force within whichever coalition he decides to join.

Most importantly, because Tymoshenko and Yanukovich have ruled out a coalition with each other, the most desirable coalition for each side is with Yushchenko. This puts him in an extremely favorable negotiating position that, while his party may have won less votes than both of the other two, may mean that he comes out on top regardless of which side he joins. Due to the constitutional reforms, Yushchenko????????s party can break with its coalition partner at any time and form a new coalition. What this means is that we are likely to see further pro-market and Western-oriented reforms no matter who the senior coalition partner is.

The one thing that is being forgotten most in this entire debate is that the OSCE has graded the parliamentary election as being free, fair, and overall democratic. This signifies that, despite whoever forms the next government, democratic consolidations have been made since the Orange Revolution. In the very least, the people have won a very important victory that won’t be rolled back.