It doesn’t look good for Peru.

Source: Noticiero Digital

Today is the first round of the presidential election, and Ollanta Humala, the pro-Hugo-Chavez leftist with a verified personal record as a human-rights violator, is leading in the polls in Peru with 29.6% of the vote. The result is based on an exit poll by Apoyo, a good polling firm.

It gets worse.

Alan Garcia, the lunatic leftist who ruled Peru during the 1980s and gave Peru 7000% inflation and a near-death experience with the Shining Path, as well as loads of trouble for President Ronald Reagan, is unexpectedly in second place, with 24.5% of the vote. Lourdes Flores is in third place, with 24.2% of the vote.

If the exit poll is accurate, it means Flores will be knocked out of the second round and the only two candidates remaining will both be far leftists.

The Reuters story I see here does not tell me what the geographical breakdown of the polled-out vote is.

Peru is kind of funny electorally, and geography matters there – it’s basically Lima, the north and the south. The north is copper country and they mostly vote free markets for exports. The south is Indian country and they vote for the Evo-Morales left. Lima, home of Hernando de Soto, tends to be pro-free market. So if this tally came from the south, no big deal, the numbers will likely show reason in the end. But if this is Lima being counted, there’s a problem. A big one. Peru may well have a choice between a leftist with a bad record and a superleftist who is likely to hop into bed with Hugo Chavez.

The election seems to be clean.

So, where is the silver lining? Maybe history. I recall how many in the markets were terrified of the election of Lucio Gutierrez in Ecuador a few years ago, a tinpot coupster with a leftist record, and he didn’t turn out to be nearly as bad as expected, although he was indeed a horrible leader. Could the same be true of Humala? One can only hope. Meanwhile, Alan Garcia, after a horrible record as president, insists he learned his lesson about markets and won’t do as bad a job as last time. He’s a powerful orator and may well land the second spot.

If these exit polls are right and they stay steady, it’s pretty sad to have only Alan Garcia and Ollanta Humala to choose from and to actually have to go for Garcia.

Stay tuned, there should be more information ahead….

UPDATE: Other exit polls show Flores in second place. Here is a more complete Reuters story.

UPDATE: Peru2006, affiliated with the University of British Columbia, has a full list-down of all the different polls, side by side, here.

UPDATE: Elephant In Academia has a very fine writeup of the event here.