Ratko Mladic was the former Army Chief under Bosnian Serb leader Radovan Karadzic. Along with Karadzic, Mladic is largely responsible for the campaign of ethnic cleansing of Croats and Muslims. Mladicwas indicted in 1995 by the UN’s International Criminal Tribunal for former Yugoslavia (ICTY) for genocide and crimes against humanity for his role in the siege of Sarajevo, which claimed 12,000 lives, and for orchestrating the massacre in July 1995 of more than 7,500 Muslims at Srebrenica. Mladic and Karadzic are the two most wanted suspects from the Bosnia conflict, and both are still on the run. When Slobodan Milosevic was arrested in 2001, Mladic fled Belgrade and has not since been seen by his pursuers.

In the past five years numerous efforts have been made by the UN peacekeeping forces to capture Mladic, and rumors of Mladic????????s imminent capture have always proved incorrect. Mladic, who is originally from Bosnia, is said to be protected by the current Serbia and Montenegro’s military and security services. Fortunately for Mladic, the security services operate with little or no oversight of the current government of Serbia and Montenegro.

Having evaded capture since he fled Belgrade in 2001, things may be changing for Mladic now that Serbia is in talks to join the EU and pressure is being brought on the Serb government to find him and turn him over to the ICTY. Serbia and Montenegro desperately would like to be part of the ongoing EU enlargement. In March the EU threatened to discontinue EU talks with Serbia and Montenegro unless Mladic was captured and turned over to the ICTY. On March 31 the EU reversed course and agreed to meet with Serbia on April 5 to continue talks because there was substantial progress in Serbia and Montenegro????????s cooperation with the ICTY. Most important in this announcement was the fact that the tough ICTY Chief Prosecutor, Carla del Ponte, agreed that progress was being made. She has been a consistent vocal critic of Serbia and Montenegro????????s efforts to capture Mladic. The EU will reevaluate the progress at the end of April to determine if talks should continue relative to Serbia and Montenegro joining the EU. These talks, known as the Stabilization and Association Agreement process are important to Serbia and Montenegro because they are designed to bring the Serbian legal system and economy in line with the EU as a first step for potential future EU membership.

This time it looks like the Serbia and Montenegro government may be actually making an effort to capture Mladic. Mladic????????s son has been detained by authorities and questioned, and discussions were held with his son to convince him to negotiate Mladic????????s surrender. To add pressure, the financial police have also begun investigations into his son????????s business. Mladic????????s pension is said to have been discontinued and relatives of Mladic, including his wife????????s brothers, have been arrested. There are even unsubstantiated rumors that the US has offered the family millions of dollars if they arrange Mladic????????s surrender and arrest.

With Serbia and Montenegro????????s desire to join the EU, the EU has the big stick, and if they don????????t back down and they keep pressure on Serbia and Montenegro, look for the Serbs to find a face-saving measure to turn over Mladic before mid-May. I would not be surprised to see Mladic turned over to the UN in Bosnia, with explanations that he was not in Serbia and Montenegro. This would give the Serbs deniability as to their harboring Mladic, and would blunt some of the hostile reactions from the Serb nationalists if it appeared that the Serb government was not the one to turn him over to UN authorities.