Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador is really starting to tumble in the Mexican presidential polls, to be held July 2. He’s still ahead, but now only by 3 or 4 points. And with three months to go before election day, his trajectory is down.

Reuters has a new story here showing that for the first time in three years, he’s starting to really look shaky.

AMLO is the favored candidate of the Hugo Chavez left in Mexico. But Chavez, ironically, is the main cause of AMLO’s downfall. The more Hugo Chavez talks, the more anti-U.S, rage he spews, the more insanity he breathes, the more Mexicans seek to look elsewhere for their next president. They don’t want that and they don’t want him. Or anyone like him.

Besides that, Chavez has been caught meddling in Mexican affairs. Its ambassador has been caught addressing AMLO rallies at the UNAM university. He’s been accused on bank bombings. He’s been frequently accused of bankrolling AMLO. He’s openly campaigned for cameras wearing a Mexican hat, and praising AMLO. He’s reportedly secretly met with AMLO in Maracaibo in recent weeks. Now, drug dealers bearing $100 million worth of illegal drugs have been busted in Mexico, their cargo of stash took off from a Venezuelan airport. Alek Boyd has an excellent essay by Mexican journalist Raul Tortelero about this matter, saying that this is far from the first time Venezuelan aircraft have been caught flying in with vast cargoes of drugs.

One detail about this I will add is that Mexicans DO NOT LIKE DRUGS. They hate them so much they sometimes even blame the U.S. for them, because gringos are consuming these things, not Mexicans. They have protested in their hundreds of thousands against drug trafficking, which has brought them so much pain and violence, in Monterrey. Most importantly, the fear of drugs is what’s keeping the PRI candidate down in the polls, leaving it a contest between rightwing PAN candidate Felipe Calderon and leftwing PRD candidate AMLO. Now with Hugo Chavez’s government obviously permitting this kind of traffic to criss-cross Mexico, it’s become a real reason to not vote for AMLO. Mexicans absolutely cannot stand drugs.

Maybe this is the end of the line for AMLO and we will see someone reasonable, like Felipe Calderon, elected.