The Shia-led United Iraqi Alliance, which is the largest bloc in parliament and is therefore constitutionally obligated to nominate for approval the prime minister, has decided within itself to scrap Ibrahim al-Jaafari as its candidate for the post and has instead voted to nominate someone new. His name is Jawad al-Miliki. No comment yet from the Kurdish, SUnni, and secular parties.

BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Iraq’s ruling Shi’ite Alliance nominated Jawad al-Maliki as its new candidate for prime minister on Friday in an effort to end four months of political paralysis over the formation of a new government.

No immediate reaction was available from Sunni Arab and Kurdish parties to the nomination of Maliki, who had previously been seen as an unlikely candidate because he was widely viewed as a sectarian politician.

The United States hopes Iraqi leaders will form a national unity government that can avert any slide into a sectarian civil war and draw Sunni Arab insurgents into the political process.

A senior Shi’ite Alliance official said the bloc now had to put forward Maliki to Sunni and Kurdish alliances for approval, hopefully before parliament convened on Saturday. A television station run by the bloc also said Maliki had been nominated.

The Shi’ite Alliance’s original choice for the job, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, signalled in a televised speech on Thursday he was ready to step aside at the request of the bloc after resisting widespread calls for his resignation for months.

Maliki hails from the Dawa Party, the same branch of the UIA that Jaafari is from. The two are close allies and Maliki no doubt holds the same sectarian edges that made Jaafari an undesirable candidate. While there is still no comment from the other blocs, I would not be surprised if they rejected the idea of a near clone candidate. The candidate most acceptable to the other blocs, Adil Abdul-Mahdi, came from the other UIA’s other large party, the SCIRI.

As Omar posted before this decision was reached, this decision seems aimed more at keeping the unity of the UIA than it is at keeping the unity of Iraq. Even months ago independent politicians were breaking away from the UIA’s party line, saying that a Jaafari candidacy was no longer acceptable. The chorus has grown dramatically in recent weeks. Reaching a new consensus on a new candidate, especially after Jaafari won due to a single vote by the controversial Sadrists, is meant to hold them together more than chang their position. The face has changed, but not the message.

It should be no surprise, however, that the moment for choosing a different nominee for prime minister finally came. In order to approve the prime minister, he needs the backing of 2/3 of parliament. The UIA has less than half, and with the Sunnis, Kurds, and seculars all coming together to oppose a sectarian prime minister, there is no way the UIA will get its candidate across unless he is acceptable to all parties. And that’s the point of a consociational democracy! So that all the sectarian groups must work together for a common good.

I would be very surprised if the other blocs agreed to this nomination. If they do, then it will be due to simple opposition to Jaafari, as if to say anyone but him should be the candidate. However, up until this point, they have not indicated their opposition to be that simple. Parliament will be convening on Saturday in order to approve the nominees for various posts, almost all of which the Shia, Sunnis, Kurds, and seculars have been able to agree upon. Current President Jalal Talabani will remain in his position with no better alternatives presented. Tareq al-Hashemi (Sunni) and Adil Abdul-Mahdi (Shia) will continue serving as vice presidents, while Mahmoud al-Mashhadani (Sunni) will become parliament speaker with two deputies who are Shia and Kurd.

What will happen when the vote for prime minister occurs is anyone’s guess. As I said, I can’t imagine them agreeing to more of the same, especially with the current ultra-violence between sectarian militias. So if Maliki is put up to a vote, I expect him to be shot down… figuratively speaking. But then what will happen? More deadlock? I believe that is it the ultimate goal of the Sunni-Kurd-Secular alliance to break the UIA’s current monopoly on power, and in order to do that they may form an umbrella bloc larger than the UIA so that they can put forward their own nominee. If this happens, then they will choose a candidate acceptable to them within the UIA itself, which would ultimately lead to a split in the alliance and the final formation of a government.

Anyone want to place bets on what happens?