Even though the Maoists had vowed to continue a blockade of the capital following an announcement by King Gyanendra that he would reinstate parliament, but it was obvious that they had jumped the gun and gone a step too far. They have since retracted that statement (I believe because they simply didn’t have the military means or support in the capital to carry it out), and announced that they will commit to a three month ceasefire. The Seven Party Alliance has announced that the parliament will do the same. The Maoists main demand is the election of a constituent assembly to rewrite the constitution, but they must have believed that the SPA’s acceptance of the King’s stand down would lead to their betrayal of that goal. It was apparent from the start that this was not the case, so it is not surprising that the Maoists are back on board.

Meanwhile, the King has appointed the SPA’s choice for Prime Minister, which means they will get to work immediately on negotiations to figure out the exact details of the election for the constituent assembly. There are a couple of things I think they need to keep in mind.

There must be enough time to prepare for the elections. Some 80% of the country depends on agriculture, which means they will have to figure out ways to set up enough polling booths so that everyone has a chance to participate. They also need to figure out exactly what the nature and size of the constituent assembly will be in the first place, which means prolonged negotiations. The Maoists will certainly have to wait more than three months.

The most important thing, in my view, is making sure that the constituent assembly wholly represents the interests of the Nepalese people. This means that the Maoists will have to lay down their arms during the election so that people are not intimidated. Thousands of international observers need to be brough in so as to monitor the process so that it can run as smoothly and cleanly as possible. Of course, the royal army will have to refrain from intimidating people as well, but the main issue is whether or not one side will try to crush the other when the weapons are supposedly. Given the Royal Nepalese Army’s much greater strength, I’d say its more a worry for the Maoists. But it is important to retain a mutual trust on both sides, as right now there are incredibly high mutual suspicions.

On the international scene, India is doing exactly what a powerful democratic country with a desire to see stability does: it is planning a Himalayan Marshall Plan with tons of economic aid in the form of debt restructuring, infrastructure, and credit infusement. It is the largest package India has ever put together for another country, meant to set off skyrocketing inflation and an economy stalled following three weeks of national turmoil. If it works, it will certainly have a stabilizing effect on Nepal’s political system.

As for the United States, my opinion is mixed. It has been very supportive of the political parties in their goal for democracy since the beginning. At the same time, it has been too bossy in terms of the desired outcome. For example, it has told the Maoists that it must give up its arms immediately and that it wants to see a ceremonial role for the king. Such demands haven’t been well-received by any side. The American ambassador, James Moriarty, has come across as too provocative to me, being known to throw around the word “terrorist” much too often when describing the Maoists. Fact is, they are, but at the same time the King was committing state-sponsored terrorism against his own people. Now the parties are seeking a truce and national reconciliation, which includes detaching the word terrorist from the Maoists. They don’t want to be told how to design the future of their country. If they want a ceremonial role for the monarch, fine, but if they want a republic, fine.

Of course, I myself am highly suspicious of both the monarch and the Maoists. In his concession speech, King Gyanendra said he was committed to both multi-party democracy as well as the monarchy. This says to me that it is well within the range of possibility that should there be no place in the constitution for him, as Supreme Commander of the armed forces under the current constitution, he could try to take power back. As for the Maoists, well, they’re Maoists! This makes me highly suspicious of their motives. What happens when there is democracy? Will they use it to seize power and create a one-party, communist state? Or do they simply want democracy where everyone enjoys equal rights and isn’t repressed from above? These are the kinds of questions we should all be thinking about as Nepal moves toward a new direction.