After the Tulip Revolution in Kyrgyzstan over a year ago, the country has pretty much dropped off the radar. Beside working on reforms in the structural institutions of the country, and President Bakiyev wanting the U.S. to pay more for the Manas air base, not much is going on. Until lately.

Bakiyev hasn’t proven himself to be anything like the democrat or reformer people hoped he might turn out to be. Organized crime rules the country, not the people. In place of last year’s opposition (now in power) and the clan regime of Askar Akayev (now out of power), there is the stalling securing regime of Bakiyev. But there’s also a new opposition, led by former parliamentary speaker Omurbek Tekebayev, that is pushing the government to crack down on crime and corruption, and to push for reforms in the constitution.

They held a huge rally in Bishkek, dwarfing the number of demonstrators at the Tulip Revolution. President Bakiyev and Prime Minister Kulov themselves made a surprise speech to the crowd and promised that their message would not go unheeded. What certainly didn’t pass my ears was the behind-the-scenes warnings to the people that there would be a crackdown should there be any “provocations.” That is, another revolution.

As the debate sharpens over Kyrgyzstan????????s reform plans, the government is taking steps to counter the protest strategy adopted by the opposition.

Like the March 24 anniversary celebrations before it, an April 29 opposition protest rally held on Bishkek????????s Ala-Too square, just down the street from parliament and the offices of President Kurmanbek Bakiyev, was seen by many local observers as a test for the country????????s political stability.

Carrying banners proclaiming “Down with thieves!,” “Down with corruption!,” and “Down with criminals!,” protestors argued that the administration of President Bakiyev differs little from that of ex-President Askar Akayev, ousted following last year????????s Tulip Revolution.

Government supporters and ministers had earlier suggested that the rally could be used as an excuse by unidentified individuals to stage a “provocation” against the Bakiyev government. The two-hour-long rally, which attracted several thousand activists and onlookers despite heavy rain, took place peacefully, however.

The protest was marked by a surprise appearance by President Bakiyev and Prime Minister Feliks Kulov. In a five-minute address to protestors at the rally????????s end, both Bakiyev and Kulov attempted to assure protestors that the government had taken note of their demand for a crackdown on crime and corruption, along with a call for the implementation of reforms. Bakiyev dismissed accusations that his governing style closely resembles that of ousted President Akayev, telling rally participants that “I will never run away. If the need arises, I will die here, before my people. I will always be with you.”

Demands for accelerated reforms would not pass unnoticed, continued Prime Minister Kulov, who had earlier stated that he shared most of the protestors???????? concerns. “One can resolve nothing in just one day; your demands will not be left unattended to,” he said.

Rally leaders have said that they will use the next month to evaluate the government????????s progress on reform. A second rally has been tentatively scheduled for May 27. With speculation about the rally????????s outcome gathering pace, the government launched a campaign in late April to minimize differences with opposition members and civil society activists, and emphasize its own ability to withstand popular protests. In an interview broadcast on public television on the evening of April 28, Kulov announced that he had begun work on a law on opposition parties and “on exclusion of pressure from the authorities on mass media outlets.”

Presidential systems are inherently unstable due to their divisive nature, and given the clannish nature of Kyrgiz politics, the government is even more unstable and deadlocked due to the lack of a two-party system. It is no wonder that Bakiyev would be worried about another revolution. Most transitioning democracies that adopted a presidential system devolved into authoritarian regimes, which is what happened to Kyrgyzstan.

The reforms that the new opposition is pushing for would change Kyrgyzstan into a parliamentary republic. I wouldn’t exactly call Tekebayev a democrat, but the move would make the system much more fluid. Transitioning countries that adopt parliamentary systems may seem unstable on the outside, but they are inherently stable due to the broad amount of ideas that they represent. It is both stable and fluid in that parliamentary republics can enact change much quicker than presidential republics. People usually push for presidential republics in new democracies when they think they can win and take all the power, but the push for parliamentary republics comes from groups that are powerful but kept out of power who want their fair share. This change would be the best thing for Kyrgyzstan since the Tulip Revolution.

I am guessing that it will have to come sooner rather than later. Bakiyev is facing a lot of problems beside protests. Thirteen ministers in his cabinet resigned in one fell swoop. Bakiyev refused to honor their resignations, but I’m not sure there is much he can do about it. Parliament voted no confidence in his cabinet, which means they voted no confidence against him, so it will be hard for him to put together a new one with such opposition. The interesting fact is that they approved of the job that Prime Minister Kulov is doing, which signals to me that they are symbolically pushing in this measure for a parliamentary republic without executive privileges afforded to the president. The second anniversary of the Tulip Revolution a year from now should see even more interesting changes than we’ve seen already.