The Amir of Kuwait, Amir Sabah al-Ahmad, has dissolved the Kuwait parliament with new elections set for June 29 (the constitution requires that they be held within two months). This follows a week of intense conflict unprecedented in Kuwaiti history brought about in response to a government proposal to limit the number of voting districts from 25 to five. Opposition members of parliament – formal parties are not allowed under the Kuwaiti system – are protesting because, they allege, the new system will allow the government to redraw the boundaries in a way that hugely favors a minority of the population, presumably those most supportive of the government. A petition supported by 29 of 50 parliamentarians demanded the resignation of the cabinet, and so Amir Sabah al-Ahmad dissolved parliament. The Amir only took office in January following a succession crisis caused by the ailing health of the crown prince, and the tension has negatively affected the Kuwaiti stock market.

(The English version of Al-Sharq al-Awsat has an article which provides some historical background to constitutional developments in Kuwait, although it doesn’t actually explain the cause of the instant crisis, perhaps because readers are assumed to know. This article from the Kuwait Times provides more detail on the current crisis. Arabic sources: Al-Hayat, Due to Intense Differences of Opinion and the Exchange of Accusations Between Parliamentarians… The Amir of Kuwait Dissolves Parliament and Elections are Set for June 29; Al-Quds al-Arabi, The Amir of Kuwait Dissolves Parliament to Prevent Removal of the Prime Minister.)

A separate article in Al-Hayat on Tuesday (page 3, “Kuwaiti Election Campaign Begins Quickly”) reported that Amir Sabah al-Ahmad complained to the editors of the country’s newspapers – they published the speech – saying that the opposition was improperly bringing about a fitna – internal division – and that satellite TV channels – Al-Jazeera surely included here – were presenting the issue in a way that was hurting Kuwait. The article noted that opposition legislators were trying to unite around opposition to the government’s constituency reform plan. It also noted that, for the first time, women would make up the majority of the voters in the country since a large number of men would not be voting because they worked in the security and judicial branches (it was not explained why this rule was in place to begin with).

It is difficult to see what the ruling family thought they were accomplishing here; indeed, it seems that they didn’t think this through very well. The Sabah family has ruled Kuwait since independence, and genuine democratic reforms began under pressure from the United States following the 1991 war. While granting the elected parliament relatively more power in recent years, the Sabahs maintain control of the levers of power, including the defense and oil ministries, as well as the position of prime minister (currently Nasir Muhammad al-Sabah). Amir al-Ahmad thus presides as a kind of constitutional monarch over a government in which his family still maintains significant direct control.

The opposition, for its part, is divided into two informal factions, the Islamists, who are very strong, and the liberals, who are weaker, but both oppose this measure. Sources indicate that the new election will take place under the old system, so it is hard to see how this is going to come out well for the government. This could be the beginning of a fuller democracy in Kuwait, or it could lead the Sabahs to pull back on democratization and recentralize power. With Iraq still stabilizing, Iran almost literally breathing fire down their necks, and the Saudis struggling with their own radical Islamists, it is unlikely that Amir al-Ahmad would choose the current time to bring about rapid change.

Sowell is a specialist in Middle East affairs and the author of The Arab World: An Illustrated History. For more information about his book and other writings, see Arab World Analysis.com.