Ibrahim Gambari is the man behind the scenes in Burma lately. He’s the undersecretary for political affairs over at the UN, and on a recent trip, he was actually allowed to meet with the leaders of the military junta. Even more, he was the first foreign diplomat in a very long time to meet with detained democratic opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Her jail time is supposed to be over on May 27th, at which point she would be thrust back onto the political scene. Will she be let out? Gambari offers us some clues as to what is going on.

Gambari has just returned from a visit to Rangoon, where he was allowed a 45 minute meeting with the pro-democracy leader. He was the first foreigner to see her in more than two years.

Speaking to reporters Wednesday, Gambari said he had asked senior General Tan Shwe to release Aung San Suu Kyi when her current term of detention ends May 27.

“Yes. We did ask, and not only about her but other detained persons for political reasons, and this was directly, because we are not sure whether the messages get to the highest authorities, but it was delivered,” he said. “I cannot give you a sense whether this would be done or not, but certainly we hope so, and it’s not far, the 27th is this Saturday.”

Gambari would not say what response he received. But he said Burma’s ruling generals appear to want to open a new chapter in relations with the international community. He said he was encouraged that Burma’s chief of police, Major General Khin Yi, had publicly stated that he no longer considers Burma’s democracy leader a threat to stability.

“As for the chief of police, I can only guess it could be one of two things,” he added. “Part of that statement said, she is losing support in country anyway, but also to try to denigrate her importance, but it could also be a way of preparing the ground if they were to decide to release her.”

The Burmese military junta is coming to a crossroads soon. Suu Kyi is supposed to be released soon. A UNSC resolution on the country regarding repression is pressing forward. Ethnic conflict is stirring. Inflation is soaring, with government and security agents becoming disgruntled that their pay cannot sustain a living any longer. It could very well be that soon enough, the country will transition from the current regime.

Given by the police chief’s statement that her freedom will not cause instability, Suu Kyi is likely to be released this Saturday. It has always appeared to me that the junta has basically played a waiting game with her. After all, it’s been around 16 years since the government refused to hand over power to the democratically elected government. Given the repressive measures introduced, and the National League for Democracy’s leader in prison, no doubt the democratic forces have not been able to organize and resist as they once did. If she is released, the regime is betting that it will be seen as a good enough concession to warrant dialogue with the international community. And with dialogue comes aid and trade!

Gambari indicated that Burma is ready to open up to the international community, but this sounds like the same old routine where a government is facing crumbling internal legitimacy and must look outward for it. It can no longer guarantee stable prices of even basic goods, making it obvious that people — especially middle-ranking officers — will begin to rebel more and more. The only way to cure this problem is to open up to trade.

Of course, the United Nations will go for any bone that is thrown its way. But extending its line on life is not the best way to go about things. Getting propped up and heading off the UNSC resolution is all that the regime is trying to do. Any concessions on human rights would only be temporary and only symbolic at best, as such abuses cannot be remedied unless that absolutist system that exists is demolished completely.

If we’re going to see something happen in Burma, we need to see Suu Kyi released when she is supposed to be, and she needs to be allowed to organize the NLD. To make sure this happens, the best avenues for pressure are through nearby countries like Thailand, India, and China. Especially China. The case must be made that the collapse of the military regime would not necessarily mean instability in the region should Suu Kyi become prime minister and the international community then — and only then — steps in to ensure a smooth transition to democracy. If this can be done, then there really may be a chance for ensuring that enough liberalization is carried out to allow political change.