I can????????t top Rob????????s pictures of the Montenegro celebrators, but the Montenegro vote for independence does have significance for Serbia and the Balkans over and above the beauty of their independence supporters.

Everyone (including me), and especially the intelligence agencies in Europe, expected Serbia to turn over Ratko Mladic prior to the May 1 deadline issued by the EU. Carla Del Ponte, chief prosecutor at the International Criminal Tribunal for the former Yugoslavia (CTFY) accused Serbian Prime Minister Vojislav Kostunica of misleading her by insisting a month ago that Mladic’s arrest was imminent. The failure of Serbia to capture and hand over Mladic shows the weakness of Kostunica, and his inability to control the military and the Serbian security services who are believed to be protecting Mladic.

The EU, which set the bar high for a successful vote for Montenegrin independence (more than 55%,) was not looking forward to an independent Montenegro. But, now the frustration with Serbia has reached a level that the EU is happy with the independence vote, and will move forward, albeit slowly, to begin preliminary steps for discussions with Montenegro to join the EU.

Since Serbia did not arrest and turn over Mladic, the EU has broken off any further talks on Serbia????????s ascension to EU membership. With Montenegro????????s vote for independence, Serbia????????s perceived reluctance to cooperate with the CTFY, and lack of control over the military and the security services there will now be great pressure on Belgrade to solve the Kosovo situation. Kosovo is the UN-controlled province that was formally a part of Serbia. British and American diplomats are privately saying, and publicly hinting, that they believe that Kosovo, with its ethnic Albanian majority, should be granted independence by the end of 2006. Serbia refuses to even consider the idea, but will now face more pressure to do something to resolve the Kosovo problem.

There is a risk that Montenegrin independence and Serbia????????s isolation could cause a reaction in Serbia that would be to the political advantage of the most extreme elements in Serbia. This could be the moment that the hard line nationalists and the Serbian Radical Party (SRP) have been waiting for. If Serbia becomes more detached from Europe and the West the SRP could take over the government in future elections.

Another problem that may manifest itself in later years is that Montenegro????????s independence will split a Muslim region (Sandzak) in two????????with part of the region in Montenegro and part in Serbia. Ethnic Bosnian Muslims make up around 45 percent of Sandzak’s population of about 420,000 people. Some Muslim radicals have been calling for an independent enclave in Sandzak, and the region could become a breeding ground for radical independence movements. Some in Sandzak have already declared that they will not respect a border between Serbia and Montenegro that runs through Sandzak.

Serbia, Montenegro and Kosovo????????and the Balkans in general– are areas to watch in the coming year. Don????????t forget????????World War I started in the Balkans.