East Timor, with less than a million people, is like a small town, with small-town niceness … and small-town small-mindedness. It’s also coming off a 25-year populist guerrilla war for independence, meaning that there are a lot of unemployed soldiers and guerrillas around, without a purpose.
The barely-developed half-island won its independence from Indonesia in a 1999 referendum that came about by fluke, when, in an unguarded moment, the loose-tongued, clownish Soeharto successor, BJ Habibie, said that if the Timorese really wanted a referendum, he’d darn well give it to them.
It turns out they did.
And independence, after decades of human rights abuses, and Indonesia’s monstrous currency devaluation, won by a strong margin. The winners were former Marxist guerrillas who said they were no longer Marxist, and it might have been true. But they also had a very nationalist-populist caste to them, which probably informed what the future Timor would eventually become.
Habibie and the rest of the Indonesians – some of whom had established themselves very well there over the years in Timor, lost big and had to leave.
In a bath of bloodshed, soldiers aligned with the Indonesian army slaughtered and burned and murdered their way out. The world panicked at the potential for violence, which was huge, and finally, after many people were killed – I vividly recall the refugees cowering in a church for safety being burned to death by Indonesian soldiers and paramilitaries – and finally, the United Nations, under the late Sergio Vieira de Mello, was sent in to restore order. The Australians did the heavy lifting, but elections were organized and a power-sharing arrangement was established. It was supposed to be a success story. Then the UN, taking its furniture with them, left, and East Timor began, around 2000.
In light of the fact that Timor had literally nothing after Indonesians smashed their way out of there, it became evident that Timor would become an aid republic. Spoils would be important. Excercise of democracy would be one thing, but dividing up the cash would be another. And in light of that, it used the U.S. dollar as its first currency. There was talk of developing oil and coffee but to date, it’s all very minimal. Aid republic is what Timor still is. And its main purpose is to still figure out how to divide the unearned spoils. When I talked to the prime minister of East Timor in New York about it, he said dollarization would last no more than three years, but he liked the setup. I told him it would be dumb to set limits to it, because people would start arbitraging and hoarding. Anyway, they’re still an aid republic of no development and they still use the dollar. It’s sad and it’s a shame. But it all seemed very normal for awhile.
Until this year.
One group of ex-guerrillas turned soldiers, supposedly closer to rebel guerrilla chief Xanana Gusmao, who’s now the president, believed they weren’t getting the promotions they deserved. And another group, from the eastern half of the island, were. That caused a formation of them to break away from the army and form their own rebel faction. They had pals in the cops, so the cops and the rebels battled the army regulars. It’s been brewing for about three weeks, but it’s only in the last six days that real warfare has broke out.
The prime minister called in the Australians, who sent 1400 troops. The Malaysians sent about 500, right behind them. The Portuguese send another few hundred and the Kiwis said they’d send about 200. Timorese cheered when they landed and they immediately restored order. But the minute they moved away from the chaos, the fighting is starting up again. Houses are burning, city dwellers are fleeing, and people are dead. It’s massacre and machete time again in East Timor. Unemployed youths, carrying machetes, have joined some of the rebel factions.
The prime minister is calling it a coup attempt and a threat to Timor’s fragile democracy.
It’s probably easy to say you want democracy if you’re the guy in power by virtue of democracy. But if people are being systemically excluded from the system, and you aren’t doing anything about it, maybe you deserve the trouble you get.
On the other hand, this might be petty bickering over who gets the top bunk. I don’t know at this point, but I find it sad to see all the refugee pictures and fear and grief on those blameless people. All that, due to a dispute over the best jobs and promotions? It’s a fight over spoils. And that is about the most undignified reason to destroy democracy that I can think of.
When will people stop viewing democracy as a matter of spoils and instead view it in terms of ideals?
Glenn at Instapundit has more links and further thoughts here.