The road to forming a new Iraqi government, from the elections in December last year to its actual formation no more than a week ago, splintering between the country’s different ethnic and religious groups has been everyone’s concern. Sunnis attacking Shiites, and vice versa. Even with the end of the insurgency, the development of death squads supplied by Iran have continued the extra-judicial killings.
On the political level, despite all of the killings, things have chugged along slowly but surely. Of these developments, however, the most interesting and perhaps the most important has always been the breakdown of the Shiite alliance as each party pursues its own interests in the new Iraq. Up until now it has always been simply on the political level, with parties haggling over minister portfolios and nominations. Now the politics have converged with the violence. With the tough issues coming to the forefront, such as disarming sectarian militias, distribution of oil wealth, and preventing Iranian influence, the Shiites themselves have splintered down the middle and are fighting each other.
BAGHDAD (Reuters) – Factional struggles among ruling Shi’ites could flare into warfare over Iraq’s vital southern oilfields, officials said on Monday as the new, Shi’ite-led government prepared to send a top-level peace mission to Basra.
“The situation in Basra is worrying. It is getting increasingly tense,” a senior government official in Baghdad told Reuters on Monday, two days after President Jalal Talabani raised the alarm and urged government action to ease friction.
“It could turn to an open armed conflict between Shi’ite groups if it is not resolved,” the official added.
Shi’ite Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki himself could head a delegation to Iraq’s second city this week, officials said. Last week, one small faction warned it could halt oil exports from Basra if it did not win concessions from the Baghdad government.
Security has deteriorated sharply in Basra over the past year as rival factions from the Shi’ite majority tussle for a share of the power handed to their branch of Islam by the U.S. overthrow of Saddam Hussein’s Sunni-dominated administration.
One must understand that the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance is not as united as its participants pretend it to be. If they truly were, then there would be no need for it to be made up of so many different parties. These loyalties are tribal in nature, with each trying to be the most powerful. The breakdown of the UIA is coming now that the country’s biggest problems are coming to a head, as these problems are due to and can only be solved by the Shiites themselves. Some of these groups have no interest in doing so as it would mean giving up their own power.
Therefore, it may not be Baghdad where this all comes down to, but Basra. It is in Basra where all of these Shiite groups converge.
Newly elected Prime Minister Jawad al-Maliki, from the Dawa Party of the UIA, has vowed to crush all militias that are causing sectarian strife. He has also stated that he will not allow Iranian infiltration into the country. Meanwhile, Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mehdi Army militia is fighting back as its prominence is largely due to killing for what it portends to be Shiite interests. It is this same militia that receives aid from Iran and has vowed to defend Iran over Iraq. The Shiite nationalists are having to fight their own co-religionists as each decides which homeland to defend.
Oil is again proving to be the kingmaker commodity. The Fadhilla Party, to whom the governor of Basra belongs, is demanding greater control of the oil spoils, which in turn would increase its power. All the other groups are fighting for more of this as well. Whoever controls Basra controls most of the country’s current oil production. So whoever can do this can build the biggest militia and wield the most power. Moqtada al-Sadr is even moving into Kirkuk, which the Kurds have already claimed, and that will only cause clashes between the Kurds and Shiites who, until this year, were ruling coalition partners.
Never before has actual fighting between the Shiites been so large. As the new majority and most powerful ethno-religious group in the country following the downfall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, they have become to a large degree just as demented and power-hungry. But since they are a majority, infighting between them will affect everyone. This is something that only a nationalist culture can counteract. As long as there are groups in the Shiite alliance that are not loyal to Iraq itself, the fighting will continue.