In all the societies of the Arab world in which there has been a serious push for democratic reform, success has been mixed, but in none of them has it turned out so disastrously as in Palestine. Israel’s unilateral disengagement from Gaza last summer and the Palestinian elections earlier this year brought to power the Islamist terrorist movement Hamas, and result which was greeted with wide dismay in the free world. What was less noted was that the favored Fatah, the secular nationalist party of the late Yasser Arafat, is also terrorist. It has maintained its own terrorist wing, the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades, and one of the main electoral lists was headed by Marwan Barghouti, a convicted terrorist currently residing in an Israeli jail cell. Yet they lost to Hamas anyway. Nevertheless, Fatah head and Palestinian Authority President Mahmud Abbas has won himself some credibility among those of us who have doubted the sincerity of his commitment to peaceful coexistence by ardently insisting that Hamas accept Israel’s right to exist. With the pullback of U.S. and European aid to the Hamas-led government, Abbas has held firm politically, beefed up the security forces under his control, and, most recently, has upped the stakes by threatening to call a referendum on peace with Israel, essentially a referendum on Hamas’ government.

The past several days have seen an increased momentum toward a climax in the conflict between Fatah and Hamas. With the aid-dependent government unable to pay salaries – Palestine has little genuine economy – the levers of patronage are gone and people are getting desperate and dangerous. Hamas rejected the call for the referendum, reaffirming its stance on Israel. Hamas first sent its armed members into the streets in a show of force, and then withdrew them (JPost), and then sent them out again. Hamas furthermore accuses Fatah of targeting Hamas ministers (JPost). Abbas began working to increase the size of the security forces under his direct control (Al-Quds al-Arabi), and although he denied receiving weapons from Israel, this has been confirmed in the Israeli media (Jerusalem Post). The commander of Abbas’ newly beefed-up “Force 17” is to be Mahmud Damra, who is wanted in Israel for terrorist attacks.

For Hamas, a moment of decision has come. As described in a front-page article in Tuesday’s edition of Al-Hayat, Hamas has three options:
(1) agree with Abbas’ demand that Israel’s right to exist be recognized, a decision which would result in the organization splitting in two, with the activist core splitting from the political leadership,
(2) hold out in government as the PA’s finances crumble and be unable to function as a governing institution, or
(3) leave the government, thus admitting failure, but preserving the movement’s core principles.

The article quotes Dr. Ali Jarbawi of Beir Zeit University:

If Hamas will not grant these concessions Äsubstantive concessions as to IsraelÅ, then it will need to make a procedural concession and leave the government. Hamas fears that this will place upon them a stamp of failure, and this is true, but if they continue in the government for a longer period then they will be forced to do so under pressure.

The article also quotes some of the rank and file as threatening to split Hamas if those serving as ministers in the government agree to Abbas’ conditions, but frankly I doubt that Prime Minister Ismail Haniya, Foreign Minister Mahmud Zahar or any of the others would seriously consider doing so. And if they would, they certianly will not consider doing so knowing that the armed core of the movement will pull the rug out from under their feet.

The Palestinians & the Lebanese Front
Increased violence on the Israeli-Lebanese border over the past week has emphasized the second dimension of the Palestinian security situation, and that is the presence of armed Palestinian militias operating from Palestinian refugee camps in Lebanon, as well as those operating in Lebanon but supported by Syria – the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine-General Command (PFLP-GC) and the Islamic Jihad (the IJ is sponsored primarily by Iran, but it works out of Syria). A senior member of the Islamic Jihad was injured in a Beirut car bomb, and then rockets were launched – apparently by the PFLP – into Israel, bringing about an Israeli airstrike in response (Vital Perspective). One positive development is that the renewed fighting has highlighted the need in Lebanon for the disarming of both the Palestinian militias as well as Hizbullah (Jerusalem Post). Although Hizbullah has not been implicated in the initiation of this recent flare up, they did start firing Katyusha rockets thereafter, and the group’s constant incitement toward Israel six years after Israel’s withdrawal from Lebanon has brought about a renewed call from the “March 14” parliamentary majority led by Saad Hariri, Walid Jumblatt and Samir Geagea for Hizbullah’s disarmament.

The PFLP, in addition to its terrorist activities, sidelines as a political party in Palestinian politics, and it received three seats in the elections which brought Hamas to power. While there has been talk of the PFLP joining the govenrment, recent indications are that they will not join (Vital Perspective). If they did, that would certainly reinforce Hamas’ stance against recognizing Israel.

The Final Analysis
Now Al-Hayat is reporting that Hamas is making relatively conciliatory noises regarding an agreement with Fatah as to Israel (“Any Form Acceptable Which Does not Include an Outright Recognition of Israel… Hamas Studies the Legal Aspects of the Arab Peace Initiative“). I expect this to come to nothing. Hamas leaders have indicated acceptance of a long-term ceasefire in the past, but they cannot accept Israel without tearing the group apart. Hamas apparently wants to see if they could accept the Arab peace proposal endorsed by the Arab League without making any real commitments. The Arab League proposal in any case requires Israel to withdraw to the “green line,” the pre-1967 border which would mean splitting Jerusalem, uprooting over 200,000 West Bank settlers, and returning to Israel’s less defensible borders it had at that time. While the uprooting of the settlements is going to be a negotiable issue, dividing Jerusalem will not be, and at most Israel might give up land in the south in exchange for land in the central West Bank area that it keeps as a buffer.

As for the internal Palestinian situation, the fall of Hamas’ government may be near, but this would improve the situation only moderately, leaving Hamas with its armed terror units and simply returning to power Fatah, which itself is riddled with terrorists. There is reason for hope on the Lebanese front, an issue to which I hope to return soon, but no one should be optimistic about the situation in Gaza and the West Bank.

Sowell is a specialist in Middle East affairs and the author of The Arab World: An Illustrated History. For more information about his book and other writings, see Arab World Analysis.com.