No more than three days ago, I wrote:

On the political level, despite all of the killings, things have chugged along slowly but surely. Of these developments, however, the most interesting and perhaps the most important has always been the breakdown of the Shiite alliance as each party pursues its own interests in the new Iraq. Up until now it has always been simply on the political level, with parties haggling over minister portfolios and nominations. Now the politics have converged with the violence. With the tough issues coming to the forefront, such as disarming sectarian militias, distribution of oil wealth, and preventing Iranian influence, the Shiites themselves have splintered down the middle and are fighting each other.

One must understand that the Shiite-led United Iraqi Alliance is not as united as its participants pretend it to be. If they truly were, then there would be no need for it to be made up of so many different parties. These loyalties are tribal in nature, with each trying to be the most powerful. The breakdown of the UIA is coming now that the country????????s biggest problems are coming to a head, as these problems are due to and can only be solved by the Shiites themselves. Some of these groups have no interest in doing so as it would mean giving up their own power.

Therefore, it may not be Baghdad where this all comes down to, but Basra. It is in Basra where all of these Shiite groups converge.

Baghdad has always been the heart of Iraq. Whoever controls Baghdad controls the rest of the country. It is where many of the country’s ethno-religious groups converge, which has made it the center of inter-sectarian violence since the removal of Saddam Hussein three years ago. However, with the installation of a democratic government, the once repressed Shia population — always having been the majority — are now the most powerful ethno-religious group in the country. Any Sunni-backed insurgency can be and is ultimately being defeated, but it is the nature and actions of the Shia that will determine the future of Iraq.

The Shia are certainly not some unified body. Quite the opposite. Some are backed by Iran, while others are more nationalist. Several have militias that, even while in political alliance, are fighting each other on the ground. They all want oil money. And they all want to be the dominant party. Certainly, it is these four characteristics that have led to the now occurring major upsurge in violence in the Shia-dominated south of the country, where the city of Basra — and most of the militias — are located. It has led newly elected Prime Minister Jawad al-Maliki to, just yesterday, declare a state of emergency in the city, saying now that he will crush the militias with an iron fist.

Iraq’s new Prime Minister declared a state of emergency today in the southern city of Basra, where British troops have been dragged into a bloody power battle between sectarian militias.

Nouri al-Maliki, who took office last week at the head of a grand coalition of Shia and Sunni Muslims and Kurds, announced the 30-day emergency period on a visit to the oil-rich city, where hundreds have been killed in recent weeks by Shia militias.

A state of emergency also has been imposed on Baghdad, and the provinces of Diyala, on the Iranian border, and Anbar, which has a huge land border with Syria, Jordan and Saudi Arabia.

Details are unclear but an Iraqi security source said that it would involve day-and-night patrols by security forces and increased vehicle searches.
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Mr Standing at a podium with an Iraqi flag as a backdrop, Al-Maliki issued a strong denunciation of a wave of killings and kidnappings in Basra that Sunni religious leaders have blamed on Shia death squads.

“We shall use an iron fist against the leaders of the gangs or those who threaten security,” he said, apparently referring to the militias as well as rival tribal groups.

Defeating the militias will be a great degree harder than defeating the insurgency. They are affiliated with groups already major players in the political process, numbering in the tens of thousands, and have infiltrated the police and Interior Ministry forces. The main Shia groups want to integrate the militias into the security forces, a move the Sunnis and Kurds reject. Everyone knows how the Lebanese civil war began: sectarian groups broke from the army and started fighting each other. It would essentially leave the situation unchanged, or even potentially worse. Groups like Moqtada al-Sadr’s Mehdi Army cannot be convinced to disarm no matter what, so crushing them with an iron fist may be the only option.

The most important thing that must happen in order to ensure Iraq’s steady political and economic development is ensuring security. Many people have placed hope in the militias to assure their personal safety and will continue to do so. Many everyday Shia, while they don’t like the fact that so many extra-judicial killings are taking place, would rather accept this for awhile than be put at risk. What the Iraqi government must especially do is create a security force that provides a significantly better alternative to the militias so that people will no longer be loyal to them. If this happens, they will begin to lose influence. Only then can the bloodshed in Basra, as well as Baghdad, be stopped.