Elections to the lower house of the Czech Parliament, the Chamber of Deputies, begin at 2:00 PM on June 2 and end at 2:00 PM on June 3. The Chamber of Deputies is the more important part of the bicameral Czech Parliament. The Chamber of Deputies has 200 members, elected for four year terms. A party needs 5% of the vote to be represented in the government. In the election four years ago the Czech Social Democratic Party (center-left) received 30.2% of the votes and they currently hold 70 seats, the Civic Democratic Party (center-right) received 24.5% and hold 58 seats, and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia received 18.5% and hold 41 seats, while a coalition of the Christian Democratic Union and the Czechoslovak Peoples Party hold 22 seats, and Freedom Union – Democratic Union coalition hold 9 seats.

According to a recent poll the more conservatice Civic Democratic Party could emerge victorious after the election, and the current governing Czech Social Democratic Party could come in second, followed by the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia. The Civic Democratic Party is skeptical about the European Union????????s power, and they voted against the EU Constitutional Treaty in the European Parliament. They see any addition integration into the EU as weakening the national sovereignty of the Czech Republic.

Five parties are projected to win seats in the lower house of parliament, but none will have a majority and therefore will need at least one partner to form a cabinet. There are three coalition scenarios: 1) a center-left three-party coalition led by the Social Democrats; 2) a center-right three-party cabinet led by the Civic Democrats; and 3) a minority Social Democrat cabinet backed on some key votes by the Communists.

In the first scenario, the Social Democrats would find it very difficult to convince the Christian Democrats to pursue more involvement with the European Union, and since both parties favor transAtlantic cooperation, little would change in Czech foreign policy.

The second coalition scenario would result in a less favorable attitude toward the EU, but more cooperation with Europe and the US in NATO endeavors. A strengthening of ties with the US would most likely be a foreign policy objective.

The third scenario of a minority Social Democratic government supported by the Communists would result in a more cooperative arrangement with the EU, but would definitely be a setback to the existing pro-American sentiment. The Communist want to leave NATO, although this is unlikely to happen, support for future US military and NATO activities could be obstructed.

The likely outcome of the election seems to be a centre-right coalition government of the Civic Democratic Party and the Christian Democrats, but a key factor in the elections will be how well the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia does. The Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia is the successor party to the old Communist Party of Czechoslovakia, and is the only party in Eastern Europe that did not change its name after the collapse of the Soviet Union/Warsaw Pact.

The party has been trying to change its image and attract younger voters, who do not remember the history of the Communist Party, and the older voters whose living conditions have worsend, and who nostalgically recall the times when there were quaranteed jobs, cheap housing and the government supposedly took care of the citizen????????s needs.

The Communist Party????????s slogan is based on the theme ???????We have solutions.??????? They are promising to increase salaries by 40 per cent over the next five years, increase expenditures for research and development, and to construct 50,000 new apartments each year (housing shortages are a major problem.) The Communist Party has also promised to improve the healthcare sector, and the education system. It opposes the Czech Republic’s membership in the European Union, and has called for the country’s withdrawal from NATO, and they have stated that they would oppose any US facilities being installed in the Czech Republic.

Holding an election in June, when the weather is nice and many young people are on holiday, may lower the turnout and not be a true reflection of the Czech voter????????s sentiment, but the results could drastically influence the future foreign policy of the Czech Republic.