Today’s the Big One, Peru goes to the polls today. I’ll have something up on that in a minute but here is an important background topic I post as a sidebar: Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez’s political meddling in Peru during its election.
At times, it’s been the central issue of the entire Peruvian campaign in the second round.
Meddling is such a vague term. If a foreign leader expresses preference for a certain candidate in another country’s election, I don’t exactly consider it major meddling – I consider it really just dumb. After all, voters do not have to heed them.
Remember all the foolish world leaders who expressed preferences for John Kerry over George Bush during our presidential race? Bush won, and then knew exactly what those leaders thought of him. Net result: They damaged themselves. Chavez was one of these idiots, Gloria Arroyo was another, and Christina Kirchner (the Argentine first lady) actually went to the Democratic Convention to show her support. Meanwhile, Gerhard Schroeder also made his preferences known. Interestingly, France’s Jacques Chirac, was sophisticated enough to keep his mouth shut and for that, his relations with the U.S. noticibly improved afterward. Bush was probably impressed with that, because there was no question what Chirac thought of Bush. It’s just that Chirac also knew how to look out for Chirac and not make pronuncimentos that les cowboys incorrigibles probably wouldn’t heed anyway, except as a counterindicator. Chirac, to his credit, knew that much.
In Peru’s election, Hugo Chavez has made no secret of his preference of candidates for Peru’s president – Ollanta Humala. He’s endorsed him and endorsed him – even though Humala’s wife has publicly told Chavez to stop. Peru’s voters, meanwhile, figuring that this will be a taste of what a Humala presidency will be like, (with Chavez calling the shots, telling them what to think), are utterly repelled by Chavez’s statements of support. That’s why Humala’s candidacy, once so very strong, has now been eclipsed by that of Peru’s ex-president, the otherwise dreaded, and now well-liked, Alan Garcia. Humala’s party has branded Chavez’s endorsements of them as negative.
Daniel at Venezuela News & Views thinks this continuous endorsing, despite its counterproductivity, might actually have been a sign of a falling out between Humala and Chavez. Otherwise, why would Chavez keep doing it even though it’s obviously hurting Humala’s campaign? You can see his thoughts about this here.
But if mere announced preferences are questionable as instruments of meddling, there’s a whole body of evidence that shows far more authentic meddling, the kind designed to affect the outcome of the race.
Chavez has engaged in that – in spades. Here are some specifics:
*He promised to build a $3 billion sewer system IF and only if, Ollanta Humala was elected. No Humala, no sewer system. The promise of goodies to Peru’s voters can be seen in this cartoon on VCrisis (scroll down) here.
*He vowed to cut off relations if Alan Garcia was elected. This would probably include trade relations as well. Peru is a state that trades with Venezuela in some capacity, so early on he vowed to punish Peru’s private sector with a loss of trade if it dared not choose Chavez’s candidate.
*There are conflicting reports, but he reportedly sent in, Bolivia-style, a team of Venezuelan troops to stir up trouble if Humala were not elected. If it’s true, and many people believe it is, that’s intimidation of voters with the threat of force if they don’t vote the way Chavez wants them to.
*He sent in his fake polling firm, NAOR, to report false leads for Ollanta Humala, in a bid to confuse Peru’s voters, discouraging some from voting at all (Peruvians must vote but can cast blank ballots) and possibly laying the groundwork for a cheating scenario. That’s the purpose of such phony push polls. Alek Boyd has that evidence of meddling here.
*He has been repeatedly charged by Alan Garcia of bankrolling Ollanta Humala’s campaign.
*He promised Peruvian illegal aliens inside Venezuela a full Venezuelan passport if they cast their ballots in Peru’s election for Ollanta Humala.
If any one of these things are true, it constitutes real meddling in another country’s election, an effort to interfere with democracy to get one’s candidate elected. In my opinion, it could backfire badly if voters value their sovereign right to democracy. I think Peru’s do.
Outgoing President Alejandro Toledo has filed a complaint with the Organization of American States about this meddling in Peru’s democracy and if the OAS doesn’t take this stuff seriously, it will probably be finished as a credible organization. Its leadership has already been a disappointment. That organization ought to break up or alter its charter as a group that’s now indifferent to democracy if it takes no action on the Chavista meddling going on in Peru.