Alan Garcia, probable winner, Peru presidency, and second-time lucky
Source: Reuters, via Yahoo!

… and his far-left Hugo-Chavez-style opponent, Ollanta Humala is trailing by about five percentage points. Assuming there are no surprises, this represents one of the greatest political comebacks of all time – the greatest comeback since …. Nixon. And it’s nothing to cry about either, we can be as happy as the people in the pictures, because although wilder things have happened in politics, it’s everyone’s victory this time.

GOOD!!!!!!!!!!!

Garcia savoring victory, happy he beat both Hugo Chavez & his own record
Source: Reuters, via Yahoo!

See what Inka’s got here.

Bloomberg confirms exit polls show Garcia’s got it in the bag here.

UPDATE: Inka at Journal Peru reports that official results show that Garcia’s lead has widened to about 11 percentage points ahead of Humala, with 77% of the vote counted. And very few voters left their ballots blank.

UPDATE: Peru Election 2006 reports that Humala has graciously conceded.

Peru’s exuberant voters come out to celebrate – even some babes in back!
Source: Reuters via Yahoo!

More celebrations for Garcia among Peruvians
Source: Reuters, via Yahoo!

* * *

So as the news sinks in, what can we say about this? The election was peaceful, uneventful, and each side got to express its wishes.

But this election is sort of special, as an expression of democracy and as an assurance to the rest of us that Peru will not go down in flames alongside Bolivia and Venezuela.

Here’s what I mean by the positives signs for democracy:

In the first round, last April, Peru’s voters were divided roughly 33-33-33 between the three candidates. The voters from the losing third-place candidate, Lourdes Flores, (who would have made a very fine president of Peru, with truly wonderful free market ideas, and Hernando de Soto at her side), could have sat this election out in sour grapes rather than cast their ballots for anyone, because although voting is compulsory in Peru, voters can leave their ballots blank if they want. Surely Garcia must have repelled them! (Remember what a pain he was to Ronald Reagan in the 1980s? He was horrid!) Instead, these voters showed a great political maturity in casting their ballot for the least objectionable candidate, Alan Garcia, instead of just saying they hated both of them and walking away.

Although they had plenty of reason to loathe Alan Garcia, he really was the least-objectionable candidate. In fact, he was extremely anti-Hugo-Chavez (and real loud about it), distinguishing himself significantly from the pro-Hugo-Chavez candidate, Ollanta Humala. The Flores voters could plainly see from this that the contest was about democracy and anti-democracy, not about particulars of political programs.

Democracy. Or Tyranny. It was that stark. And they chose democracy.

The net result of this electoral choice: Peru dodged a bullet.

The Hugo-Chavez acolyte, Ollanta Humala has lost the race and won’t be joining Fidel Castro, Hugo Chavez and Evo Morales in the anti-US cavorting photo festivals. Peru won’t see land confiscations, capital flight, massive corruption, anti-Americanism and all the other plagues of the Hugo Chavez-Evo Morales axis of economic stupidity.

More so than any other election in this hemisphere, this election tested Peru’s resolve as a democracy. Was Peru going to slip into the Hugo Chavez camp, or move into a moderate social democracy like that of Lula in Brazil? Hugo Chavez stuck his nose into everything here and made this whole election all about him.

Garcia stepped forward and realized that if he was going to win, the alternative he’d offer would be a soft, law-respecting social democracy that contrasted sharply with Chavez’s vision for Peru. Flores voters were willing to go along with it and trust him. Even though they hated him. They did this because they knew that democracy itself was at stake. Humala had no intention of leaving when his term for office was over. Right off the bat he proposed to rewrite the constitution to Chavista standards, one of which includes a stipulation of ‘dictator for life.’

So it’s really not just Peru, but the entire Western Hemisphere that dodges a bullet, and in this watershed election is saved from a very dangerous swing to the non-democratic totalitarian left.

Who’s responsible for that? The Lourdes Flores voters who maturely held their noses and had the grace to vote for Alan Garcia, the lesser evil. They knew they didn’t like him but they didn’t run away. They voted because voting is a democratic act.

So much for the media canards that Peruvians don’t care about democracy. The Flores voters who put Garcia over the top shows they very much do.

Viva Peru! Viva the democratic revolution! We wish all the best for Peru now that it’s taken the best possible path it can!

Here we have it, The New Nix-, I mean, The New Alan! Go get ’em, Alan!
Source: Reuters, via Yahoo!

BLOGGER POST ANALYSIS:

Scott and Paul at Powerline find reason for cautious optimism, given the effects of time that may have wisened Alan Garcia. Still, Humala is likely to be around and a good reason to keep an eye on the situation, he’s down now but may return bigger if Garcia blows it. Their excellent post is here.

Daniel at Venezuela News & Views has a great post-election analysis with lots of background on Alan Garcia and what he must be thinking. It’s a must-read here.

Alvicho at Off Topic has a first-rate Bolivian perspective with many excellent, original observations, describing how Peruvians cannot be bought off by Chavista trinkets and how well that reflects on them – it’s an absolute must-click here.

Boz at Bloggings by Boz has five thoughtful points for Alan Garcia, now that he’s won and will soon lead Peru. He points out the things Garcia’s got to watch out for now that the election is in the bag. Read it here.

At Babalu blog, they are suggesting that everyone eat ceviche to celebrate Peru’s great victory over Chavismo! Sounds good to me! Ceviche!

Alek Boyd at VCrisis sees this as further evidence that the tide is turning against Venezuelan dictator Hugo Chavez. It can be read here.

Miguel Octavio at Devil’s Excrement has a couple more points here.

Randy Paul at Beautiful Horizons says he would have probably been tempted to leave the ballot blank in Peru. I know what he is saying but am just glad Peruvians had more courage than that! Democracy sometimes means voting for a guy you don’t like – for the sole purpose of preserving democracy.

Hat tip: Pajamas Media

Thomas Galvin at The Galvin Opinion says Garcia has his work cut out for him but this indeed was a great victory for him – and a stinging defeat for Hugo Chavez.

Hat tip: Pajamas Media

Daniel at Veneuzuela News & Views says that it was a delicious experience watching all the Chavista television stations in Caracas, trying to explain out this stinging defeat of Chavismo. Oh god, I wish I could watch too!!! Read it here.

Academic Elephant at Elephants in Academia makes hilarious short work of Hugo Chavez in the Peruvian election here.

Claudio Tellez at O Insurgente (in Portuguese) writes that Garcia’s unexpected victory is a stinging rebuke to Hugo Chavez, and boy is he happy, but the bigger test will now be in the coming election in Mexico. He’s optimistic. Read it here.

If you’re having trouble reading O Insurgente in Portuguese, click on Merv Benson’s post at Prairie Pundit, where he pretty much says the same thing!

Final Historian at History’s End has a short, eloquent post about the regional security implications of Hugo Chavez’s defeat in Peru. It’s a nicely written piece here.

Kyle at In Re: has a very intelligent, original post describing his own experiences travelling in Peru and how they relate to the electoral outcome. He says the election of Garcia is a real sign of that Peruvians have not lost all hope. It’s a must-read here.

Jefferson Morley of The Washington Post has a tremendous media roundup from around the hemisphere on the stinging defeat to Hugo Chavez from this election. It’s meaty stuff, and a must-read here.

Lucianne.com has an intelligent reader commentary thread here.

David Weigel at Hit and Run has some excellent informed commentary about the background and the danger of reading too much into this Garcia victory, I agree with him. Read it here.

Kim du Toit at The Other Side Of Kim logically pulls the conclusion from Peru’s election, that Peru’s voters are to be praised for voting for a guy they could not stand, to our own elections, something I should have thought of myself. A brilliant application and an awesome blog – read it here.

Michael Barone at U.S. News & World Report has a beautifully expert reading on the stark choice Peru’s voters faced as Chavez’s ‘revolution’ rolls through, and notes that the victory follows Colombia’s big vote for democracy last week might mean something. He breaks down the voter turnout by region and explains why voters are voting as they are within Peru’s fragmented society. It’s a must-read here. (And thanks, Michael for the kind words!)

The always-excellent Bolivian blogger Miguel Centellas at Ciao! points out that voting for Garcia was a no brainer so it was probably surprising that Humala picked up as many votes as he did – an important point. He also points out the growing failure of the Chavista power bid through the hemisphere and its implications. It’s an excellent read here.

Anyone else who has a post-election analysis, please send me the link either to ammorayleon at gmail dot com or post it in the comments section below, and I will post it up!