Mexico held its presidential debate last night, and pundits are divided as to who won. Boz has some fascinating commentary here, and this Reuters piece here gives further reliable detail, as does this excellent longer EFE piece.

Goldman Sachs summarizes it well:

Calder????n Had a Slight Edge on the Second Televised Debate

Yesterday, the five presidential candidates conducted the second presidential debate, which went on for two hours. The format of the debate was rigid, limiting spontaneous debates or fluid discussions. The debate covered six topics: governance, security, international affairs, immigration, Federalism versus regional government, and the reform of the State.

The first reading of the debate comes from newspaper Reforma, which conducted a telephone poll with 408 households across the country. Note that pollsters consider this mechanism to be biased in favor of Calder????n. In any event, the Reforma poll gave a strong victory for Calder????n, who was supported by 44% of those polled, followed by AMLO (30%), Madrazo (11%), and all the others and undecided obtained 15%. According to another poll conducted with business leaders in the DF showed that 54% preferred Calder????n, while 31% preferred AMLO.

Overall, the debate was more civilized than what analysts had expected, with candidates sticking to their scripts, leaving the exchange of accusations to the end, or responding only when provoked. The few accusations were between Calder????n and AMLO, with Calder????n being particularly aggressive and incisive in his response. Madrazo played the role of centrist, trying to come across as a moderate statesman in between two extremists. Although he did better than in the first debate, it may not be enough to bring him closer to his contenders in the race.

Our final take on the debate – we believe that at the margin it will help Calder????n to regain momentum and probably overtake AMLO in the next polls, which are likely to start coming out early next week (Reforma, Mitofsky, de las Heras, GEA and Parametria).

But enough about that.

How will the election really turn out? Maybe the Babes Of Politics theory can give us some insight. Mexico, for all its flaws, is a bona fide democracy, so all three sides have some babes. Babes signify vigor in a political contest, and when you have a real democracy going on, each side will draw a number of them.

I found some photos on Yahoo! Mexico depicting each candidate’s babes. YOU be the judge as to whose babes signify the likely winner in Mexico’s July 2 election – it’s very close, and these photos show why:

Leftwing Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador’s Babes of Politics:

Source: EFE and Notimex, via Yahoo! Mexico

Party Dinosaur Roberto Madrazo’s Babes of Politics:

Source: EFE and Notimex, via Yahoo! Mexico

Free-market Felipe Calderon’s Babes of Politics:

Source: EFE and Notimex, via Yahoo!

Which candidate will win? You decide!