We can now say the the Orange Revolution is officially over. The once-orange Socialist Party has changed sides and teamed up with pro-Russia Viktor Yanukovich’s Party of Regions, along with the Communists, and forged out a new coalition agreement nominating him for the position of prime minister. And they have the votes to get it through. A year and a half later, politically Ukraine is in the same place it was before.

Ukraine’s Western-leaning Orange coalition fell apart in acrimony Friday less than a month after its formation, boosting the fortunes of the pro-Russian opposition in this former Soviet republic.

The split underscored divisions in the country between the mainly Russian-speaking east and south and the Ukrainian-speaking west, and the country’s strategic dilemma between close ties with Russia and integration with the West.

The crumbling of the coalition, after the Socialist Party broke ranks to get its leader elected as parliament speaker, led to a swift realignment of forces: The opposition Party of Regions – which won the most seats in the March parliamentary elections but not a majority – announced its intention to form a coalition with the Socialists and Communists.

“The doors are open for everyone,” the Party of Regions’ leader Viktor Yanukovych said in parliament. Later, a senior lawmaker from the Party of Regions, Taras Chornovil, said that his party proposed Yanukovych for the prime minister’s job and would start coalition talks with the Socialists and Communists.

The Socialists said they were ready to join a broad coalition that also included President Viktor Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party. Socialist leader and parliament speaker Oleksandr Moroz called for a “wide coalition, as today we cannot continue a policy that divides Ukraine.”

The Orange camp has been working out a coalition agreement for months now, with just enough votes to elect a government. Yulia Tymoshenko would return to her post as prime minister, with Yushchenko’s man Äformer national security secretaryÅ Petro Poroshenko taking the reigns of speaker of parliament. The Socialists would then get the deputy prime ministership.

But it seems that there are too many internal contradictions within these camps for such an orange alliance to exist. The only thing they have in common is their pro-West foreign policy stance. Otherwise, Yushchenko is a freemarketeer, while Yulia Tymoshenko has been known to raise pensions, install price controls, and fight for reprivatizations; all things that have hurt the economy. It is with much sobbing that Yushchenko accepted her candidacy in order to form a coalition, after months of saying “Hell no.” In return, Poroshenko would get the speaker’s spot, as a “counterweight” to her influence and policies.

This proved to be the weak link in the chain. When Tymoshenko was prime minister, Yushchenko began to unconstitutionally give her powers to Poroshenko so that he could get his policies implemented. Revelations of corruption at the top eventually saw the entire administration disbanded. Socialist leader Oleksander Moroz and many of his deputies broke from the new orange coalition, citing that the Tymoshenko-Poroshenko conflict would eventually boil over. In essence, if the coalition didn’t end now, it would end within months anyway.

Viktor Yanukovich — you know, the guy who did everything he could to cheat his way to the presidency in 2004 — saw this weakness, and his party nominated Moroz to be the speaker. between the Regions, Socialists, and Communists, they had enough votes, and Moroz got the job, leading to the orange fallout. Trickery and deceit? No doubt Moroz is a political opportunist, though he did make a good point. It was stupid to nominate Poroshenko to the speaker’s post. Yushchenko’s inner circle is pretty dirty. The blame for the fallout lies with him.

As for the Regions, Socialists, and Communists, they signed a coalition agreement today and Yanukovich has smugly welcomed any parties who want to join. Now Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine party is in negotiation to join the coalition, a severe humiliation, but one he will have to go through if he wants any part of the pie at all.

I think such a coalition will result in a few things. Restored relations with Russia, but attempts to create equally as-good relations with the West due to the inclusion of the Socialists and Our Ukraine. NATO and the EU might have to take a wait, though the latter is probably more likely than the former of ever happening. Economically speaking, you’ll see stable economic growth policies that combine with leftist policies that contribute to corruption and kickbacks.

It makes me wonder how such a coalition like this can hold together at all.

This actually brings us to our third option, which I think Yushchenko should hold out for if he cares at all. (though, I wouldn’t bet on it, since he has lived up to so few of his campaign promises). If a new government is not formed by the end of July he can dissolve parliament and call for new elections, hopefully resulting in a party mix that can actually form a workable coalition. My prediction: Yanukovich holds his own, Yulia gains even more votes, and Yushchenko gets decimated. Moroz and his breakaway Socialists as well. It’s for that reason alone that I don’t think it will happen. Yushchenko will want to give his people a shot at regaining the public confidence before having to go to the polls. Right now that’s just not the case.

So Goodbye, Orange Revolution. We thought we knew thee. Freedom House now ranks Ukraine as a free country, with a clean and fair electoral process and a freer media than ever before. With Yanukovich in power, let us see how long that lasts. Maybe the Socialists will realize that this isn’t the kind of guy they want to mess with. Maybe not. Maybe we’ll see Ukraine backslide to a country where political intrigue and backstreet murders are the norm. I really, really hope not.

Blog roundup:

– Abdymok is taking out the trash on everyone. “It’s just like France.”

– Foreign Notes has a few interesting posts. One of them notes that the Socialists might have been bribed with tens of millions of dollars. The other is that Yulia Tymoshenko has challenged Viktor Yanukovich to an election duel, setting the barrier for entry at 10% so that, most likely, they will be the only two parties left. Wow!

– Neeka also rounds up several bloggers.

– Keep up on all the latest news at the Kiev Ukraine News Blog.