A major characteristic of authoritarian regime????????s whose domestic policies have created instability is the seeking of legitimacy through its foreign policy. In the case of Syria, it has raged against Jews as the enemy, the evil, that is the true source of the people????????s suffering. It has supported terrorist groups like Hezbollah for years, seeking the destruction of Israel ???????? impossible as that may seem ???????? because it believes that such a policy and its ???????benefits??????? can continue indefinitely. This is of course impossinble, but for a long time many people really buy it. The regime has been able to derive a degree of legitimacy from this, at least from certain segments of the population, and has received material and military support from Iran for doing so.

While Iran clearly wants to see the Jewish state wiped off the map, Syria might not be so intent on this. Assad and his generals are not ideologues ???????? they are simply power-hungry. Their entire existence is based on ensuring the survival of their parasitic status. So if things start to go awry, and they begin to lose their grip on power, just watch how quick Syria will abandon ship.

This is what makes it the real wild card in this Israel-Hezbollah war.

The Israeli response has been massive, more than anyone could have expected. Probably even Hezbollah and Syria. Infrastructure has been bombed all over Lebanon, the sea and air blockaded, all in order to suffocate Hezbollah from refilling its ammo supply. Israel has sworn that they will destroy the terrorist group this time. If they find any government actively helping it at this time, there is a great chance that this conflict could expand into a regional war, pulling Syria and possible Iran into it directly.

Whether or not this will happen is completely up to Syria. Maintaining its anti-Israel policy and allying with Iran and Hezbollah has helped maintain the regime????????s stability up until now. But in the short-term, with Israel pulling no punches, its government could easily be brought down and the country thrown into anarchy. Whether or not Israel wants Assad????????s government brought down now is anyone????????s guess, but I????????ll tell you right now that he definitely doesn????????t want to be taken down.

What this would translate to is it having to abandon Hezbollah in its time of need simply to maintain itself for the time being. That????????s the cost of playing chess. Eventually, Syria is going to lose, but forcing it to give up its rooks and bishops for a few extra moves is precisely what Israel is doing. Then, when Assad is cornered all by himself, checkmate.

Looking on the upside of things, at the end of this, Hezbollah could be destroyed and the Lebanese Army will retake the south. International aid will flow into the country to repair and rebuild all that has been destroyed in the process. Lebanon will be a sovereign country. And, hopefully, less lives will have been lost than if this necessary battle had been put off until later.