In the early hours this morning, Ukraine’s President Viktor Yushchenko accepted the nomination of Viktor Yanukovich for prime minister. Mr. Yanukovich was the 2004 presidential candidate who fraudulently won the first round of elections which sparked the ‘Orange Revolution.’
Though an embarrassing blow to Yushchenko and his one time ally Yulia Tymoshenko, this development was widely expected. The ‘Orange’ forces made several missteps over the past year and the backlash was to be expected. So, it would seem that the pro-democracy government has now been replaced by the corrupt, pro-Russian Yanukovich. But as with all things, the situation is far from being so clear cut.
Ukraine is a divided country. While the Western portions are more Europe-centric, the East and South are more Russo-centric. Indeed, the March parliamentary elections showed that the two main groups, BYuT & Our Ukraine and Yanukovich’s Party of Regions, polled roughly equal numbers. So, a government with a prime minister from the East and a president representing the West is actually a fair representation of the political landscape.
However, it is important to note that the position of prime minister is marginally more powerful than the president. As part of the resolution to the 2004/05 presidential election crisis, the Rada (Ukraine’s parliament) passed laws devolving substantial authority from the post of president to the prime minister. Thus, Yanukovich inherits a position similar to the one he tried to steal in 2004 elections.
That said, the Yanukovich’s government will likely be characterized by instability. The Party of Regions is oligarch driven and shares little in common ideologically with the Communists. In other words, PM Yanukovich will yield significant power, but it will be dependent on the ability of his coalition to stick together.
There are two further checks on Yanukovich’s power. President Yushchenko’s position, though weaker, still possesses great influence. The President directly appoints the power ministers (foreign minister, defense minister, and the national security advisor) and broadly sets direction for the country. Further, it seems that Yushchenko was able to extract significant concessions from Yanukovich including promises to continue market reforms and to seek membership in the EU & NATO.
The second check on Yanukovich’s power will be the opposition. Whether it will include Yushchenko’s Our Ukraine or not is still unclear. But given that the country still functions as a parliamentary democracy, Tymoshenko will continue to yield her influence and growing popularity to push the values of the ‘Revolution.’
In sum, the appointment of Yanukovich is the culmination of the free and fair parliamentary elections conducted four months ago. It is also a disappointment to many of the revolutionaries who crowded the Maiden a little over a year ago.
But let us not forget that those revolutionaries did not protest only for Yushchenko; they were fighting for democracy. Yanukovich’s premiership is an accurate reflection of the political situation in Ukraine and thus another victory for democracy.
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