As Saudi King Abdullah bin Abdelaziz es-Saud meets with Turkish leaders this week, the Sunni Arab world’s desperation should be kept in mind. Though economic concerns have been paramount in Turko-Arab relations for many years, and have grown since the election of the Turkish PM Erdogan, the Saudi King made a few remarks indicative of the Sunni Arab world’s fearful position.

At a meeting with the Turkish President Ahmed Necdet Sezer, Abdullah called for a Middle East free of nuclear weapons, obviously aimed bolstering Turkish support for the Arab position on Iran’s nuclear ambitions. He then stated that ???????Like you ÄTurkeyÅ, we also believe in the reconciliation of civilizations.” I doubt that Abdullah means this in the sense of melding East and West in the way Turkey has. Rather, he likely means that Saudi Arabia and Turkey share an aversion to an Iran emboldended by nuclear power or armaments.

Turkey is one of the secondary powers in the region, having oriented itself, for the most part, away from the Middle East and towards Europe over the past several decades. But Turkish and Arab security concerns converge in several places. They of course meet in opposition to an indpendent Kurdistan carved out of Iraq. They also fall in line together when trying to create a pacific Palestinian state. Still, they come together on Iran. Turkey does not want a nuclear Iran anymore than the Arabs do. And no matter how “Islamist” the Turkish PM may appear to be, the Turkish establishment will not tolerate the spread of Islamic revolution into their country.

The timing of Abdullah’s three day Turkey trip is also telling. It is the first in 40 years, and comes during a time of great crisis and ever increasing Arab irrelevance. The Arabs are powerless to combat Iran’s nuclear program; they cannot control the demons that they have unleashed in Iraq in the form of insurgency; they have thus far been entirely unable to influence the major actors in the Lebanon crisis (Israel, Hezb Allah, Iran and the West); and they face the growing ire of their own populations at their predicament. Economic concerns recognized, registered and aside, this visit is an attempt at gaining an ally for the Arab world against Iran and Islamist proxy forces. As the Turkish daily Zaman put it, this visit signals a new era in Turko-Saudi relations, and I would add Turko-Arab relations generally.

The Arabs will be reaching out to non-Western powers like Turkey more and more in the months. The new Middle East may be bi-polar, but the Turks are a of wild card of sorts. It is a kind of sub-power within the general Western/Israel camp, but maintains a larger degree of independence of policy, and, as a Muslim state, is culturally (or “civilizationally”) palatable to Arab diplomatic tastes. A traditionally pro-Western, secular Sunni Muslim state with common geo-political and economic interests as the Arabs is, more likely than not, going to try to protect its economic assets and political interests in conjunction with them. Turkey’s current government is more Arab friendly ecnomically and politically than previous governments, perhaps a benefit of rising Turkish social conservativism.

The King arrived fully loaded with a “shock and awe” economic package and a barrage of advisors.

The Saudi King will be accompanied by the representatives of the foreign ministry, finance, labor, tourism and cultural ministries, in addition to the secretary general of the National Security Council, intelligence director, and undersecretaries and advisers to foreign relations and finance officials.

The Arab hope with this visit is that Turkey will be drawn closer to the Sunni Arabs through economic incentives and the reminder of common security concerns. In this way, the Arabs will then be able to use Turkey as a sort of buffer against Iranian pressure. As there is a Syro-Iranian Axis today, there may be tomorrow a Turko-Arab Axis of sorts.

The Saudis are confident in this effort. ???????’The secular character of Turkey will not be an obstacle on the way of forming a strategic partnership between Riyadh and Ankara,’ said Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal.” The Turks are already talking the talk, with PM Erdogan scolding US “inaction”. ???????The US inaction to stop the attacks on Lebanon is harming development efforts in the Middle East,??????? he said in reference to the Lebanese situation. The Turks and Saudis have already signed six deals, one of which has been described as a set of “agreements regarding political advisers”.

The pro-Saudi Asharq Alawsat’s Tariq Alhomayed sees this as the right move, allowing the Arabs to check Iran by picking up another game piece on the Middle Eastern board of Risk. He explains the Sunni Arab intention here well.

It is an important regional power, a member of NATO and is on the doorstep of the European Union. Saudi Arabia has an evident international and regional role, one we currently perceive in Lebanon, Palestine and Iraq. Reality tells us that Turkey is, under the current circumstances, a better guarantor of Iraq????????s unity then that of the Arabs, whose stances and interests remain, divided.

Thus, “Turkey will undoubtedly grow closer to the region, in order to balance the scales” Äemphasis addedÅ. The Arabs are trying to get Turkey to act in their interest. The deal is not yet closed, but the thinking is further explained as follows.

History tells us the ambitions of the Safavi dynasty, which converted Iran to Shiaa Islam, and sought to convert others, was hindered by the Ottoman Empire. It seems history will repeat itself and Iran????????s political ambitions and those of its agents in the region will be thwarted, especially as the Americans appear to be, more than ever before, ready to withdraw from an ailing Iraq, with whom Iran has a long history. Will the Saudis do so? Will Turkey get closer? These questions await answers.

This Ottoman Option is a wise strategy, in the short run. But in the long run, the Arabs will have to find a solution to a very Arab problem. Relying on Turkey, or any other country, for political action and power will only make the region’s powers that be even less willing to react to Arab demands, because dependency shows powerlessness in its most naked form. The Ottoman Option risks returning to the days of the Ottoman Empire, when the Arabs say in the shade of the ruins and Turks managed difficult political affairs. It should be noted that Alhomyed’s notion that America’s withdrawl from Iraq would do anything but hurt Arab interests is preposterous. The American presence is the only thing holding Iran back from unleshing a full out political offensive in Iraq, by way of militias or propaganda. If one thinks that the situation in Iraq is bad now with the Americans, Iraq without the Americans will be much more bloody, much more Iranian and much less stable.

It is not enough to posture geo-politically. The homefront must be cleared of vulnerability, which means the Arabs must give their people a stake in society, they must reform and they must end the Good Ole Sunni Boys Club nature of Arab politics and international relations. They must make efforts to appeal to the Shias who live in their own countries. Iran has done this by militant means, making itself and Hezb Allah the bearers of the Islamist and Arabist flags. The Arabs must initiate a Cold War to win back their people, by creating economic development at home and a political environment that allows for the people to feel as if they matter. And they must first find some way to put an end to the carnage in Lebanon and Gaza. Otherwise, Iranian Islamist power and pressure will continue to spread, and the Arabs will remain as inconsequential as ever.

ÄCross PostedÅ