Campaign kickoff rally for Manuel Rosales in Caracas Saturday
Source: The Devil’s Excrement, which has a lot more here

Is there any greater losing proposition than trying to win an election as a non-Chavista in Venezuela? The courts are stacked, the electronic fingerprint machines ensure that HOW you voted is recorded and delivered to the authorities, the vote-tallying machines by Smartmatic can report any result they like regardless of how you voted, the whole election apparatus can be rigged to ensure that if you live in a middle class neighborhood, you’ll stand all day in the sun to discourage your participation, the hours of the election can be arbitrarily changed to as long as it takes for Chavistas to bus in unwilling supporters to make the total they’d like – and all this, with official threats and intimidation over how and whether you vote. Venezuelans in their millions saw how this rigged setup was working and last December 2, decided to stay away from the election altogether, for an 82% rate of abstention, according to Sumate.

No electoral observers have signed on to this election, none. Nobody wants to be part of calling an obvious electoral travesty, an election to be called ‘Chavez Wins.’

The Venezuelan thug, thus, will win the Dec. 3 election, this year, too.

But amid this Belarus- and Zimbabwe-style electoral horror, Venezuela’s opposition has done the courageous thing and decided to stand for election anyway. Even though they are sure it will be a disaster. They are showing that the desire for democracy in the face of Hugo Chavez’s increasingly communist tyranny is still alive and well.

That will be important if Chavez is ever thrown out of power by the military, or if Colombia needs to clean the place out, or for some other reason. The presence of a vibrant democracy in waiting is VERY important, a warning to Chavez that there are alternatives out there, even if he cheats.

Majestically, thousands and thousands of Venezuelans came out this weekend to show support for Manuel Rosales, the unified opposition party candidate who will oppose Chavez and surely see his victory stolen.

Rosales is a marvellous man. He’s the governor of Zulia state out near the dangerous Marxist-narcoterrorist-infested Colombian border where the people under seige are rightwing and concerned with security. His party is just some small Zulia-based party with no ties to any of the old guard dinosaur parties like AD or Copei, who had ruled Venezuela (mostly badly) before Chavez. He has no ties to them, so by default, he is a fresh face.

Zulia’s the Santa Cruz of Venezuela: an energy rich state, the most entrepreneurial in the nation, and the only holdout region that is so flamingly anti-Chavez no election could cheat them out of their victories. It’s the only state with a non-Chavista governor. Rosales is that man.

In a sea of Rosales supporters this weekend, almost all of them dark-skinned shantytown dwellers (errr, ‘oligarchs,’ as Chavez says), Rosales called for economic opportunity, direct cash grants from Venezuela’s oil earnings to the people (welfare, sure, but a way better idea than bureaucratic programs, which facilitate Chavista stealing. It’s likely to appeal to the poor), an end to Chavez’s $36 billion in oil giveaways to foreign countries, including the “needy” U.S., via Chavez’s Citgo program, and no more “sitting in Castro’s lap.” The rest of his program is knock-it-out-of-the-park, too.

What a powerful campaign platform! What beauty that the opposition was able to unify under this one sensible candidate! What a glorious spectacle of all the thousands of people here!

I am not sure why this has come about, but my theory is that the other elections around the hemisphere have had an impact. From Mexico, we learned that even if you think you are losing, if you keep fighting and keep pushing for economic opportunity over government handouts, and talk economic sense, as Felipe Calderon did, you can actually win. From Peru, we learned that courageous voters can hold their noses and vote for a guy they have every reason to despise if it’s needed to save democracy, and be happily surprised at getting a good president – Alan Garcia of all people – in the bargain. From Colombia we learned that when a leader keeps his eyes on the prize, doesn’t steal money, remains humble and austere – he has a sure recipe for electoral victory, as happened for Alvaro Uribe. And although it’s not an election, the rise of civil society groups in the monstrous communist Cuban tyranny has got to give courage to people everywhere that if they keep trying for democracy, they might just get it.

The resurgence of Venezuela’s opposition from nowhere is an amazing development, given the conventional wisdom that the Venezuelan opposition could not get its act together and that Venezuelan voters would not vote. I think they will vote – party operatives from the old-guard AD party were ignoring orders to abstain attending the rally, even though AD isn’t going to get anything from this election, and coming. That’s pressure from the people at work.

And it’s got to throw Chavez off guard.

The tricks will be very dirty in this election, but the whole specter nevertheless is a positive one. People are rising up and demanding democracy even though they already know they will be cheated. Absolutely amazing.

Miguel Octavio at The Devil’s Excrement has a good firsthand account of the rally, a super analysis, and the must-see photos of the poor people attending the Rosales rally here.

Academic Elephant at Elephants in Academia has an excellent, thoughtful analysis, describing how fast this miraculous event came together, as well as the snowballing troubles for Hugo Chavez and all his mismanagement, here.

Daniel at Venezuela News & Views observes that the crowds were bigger than anyone anticipated and that this is a moment to savor here.

Aleksander Boyd at VCrisis has some additional thoughts about the rise of the Zulia state here – its entrepreneuriality, its superior administration, and its good leadership here.

Andres Oppenheimer at The Miami Herald has a terrific exclusive recent interview of Rosales and a good short analysis of the issue with a link to his interview here.

I wrote more of my own thoughts on this resurgence of Venezuela’s opposition on Babalu blog this weekend here.

If I’ve missed any good links, email me at ammorayleon at gmail dot com

A Venezuelan T-shirt depicting typical Zulia independence sentiment
Source: The Devil’s Excrement