In Hungary over the past 48 hours it’s the Nika riots all over again.

Sort of.

First, political parties in Hungary do not immediately line up into conveniently-intelligible left-wing/right-wing definitions, though some are easily mappable for Americans (the SZDSZ are basically libertarians). See my previous posts here and here for some quick shorthand.

What do we know?

1. We know that Prime Minister Gyurcs????ny shot his mouth off at a private meeting of the Socialist Pary (MSZP), which was then leaked to the press, and the entire country fell into political paroxysms. But that’s what happens when the Prime Minister publicly (and, oddly enough, angrily) admits to having lied to get re-elected. “We lied, morning, noon, and night for 18 years,” he thundered, in an obscenity-laced tirade calling for reform and condemning everybody who’s been in politics the last 18 years, but especially his own party. Extensive translated excerpts can be found via Portfolio.hu. BUT… said party meeting and remarks were in May. They have only now come out.
2. FIDESZ predictably (and obviously) seized upon Gyurcs????ny’s gaffe (candor?) and called for his immediate resignation. Protests were organized at Kossuth and Szabads????g T????r (Kossuth Square and Freedom Square), endorsed by FIDESZ (though I don’t know who the actual organizers were).
3. Late in the evening, those protests got violent. GatewayPundit has an English-language quick-summary. The Hungarian Television building was attacked and cars burnt. Around a hundred-fifty people were injured, including 102 policemen, due to thrown objects, tear-gas, and outright physical assaults. Index.hu has a gallery here, and one more here.
4. FIDESZ will organize and hold an official demonstration in its own right on the Heroes’ Square on 9/23. Widespread demonstrations with moderate turnout throughout country today 9/19/06, and about ten thousand are on the Kossuth Square currently.

What are we reasonably certain of?

1. According to liveblogging over at Index.hu (in Hungarian), as of 6:30 a.m. Budapest time (call it 12:30 US East Coast), Index’s correspondents noted about seventy people still on the Kossuth Square, and circulating rumors of somebody having died a “heroic death.”
2. Soccer Hooligans did this? And more fans are coming into town by the hour to match the riot cops the government is pulling in? The two worst-behaving soccer clubs in Hungary take on the government? Something’s not right here.
3. Ultra-rightwing protestors are clearly implicated by television coverage on Hiradu.hu (00:53-1:11). (The red-and-white striped “Arpadian Flag” is a symbol of the extreme right-wing in Hungary. But, again, caution required, b/c a Eurocrat or MSM’s “extreme rightist” can often (though very clearly not always, particularly in case of actual Hungarian irredentists and fascists) correspond to what in America sums up as a “quiet family-values type.”

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General updates in English here and here courtesy of Caboodle.hu.

Immediate Ramifications, Questions, and Outright Guesses

One, this is NOT a “Color Revolution, Round Two,” although the Hungarians are perfectly justified in being roundly furious at being lied to about tax cuts, again, in order to secure election. (The Hungarians are simply crushed by the tax burden, which continues to chase social programs, which then serve to divide and conquer the population based on what goes to whom.)

Two, if indeed Jobbik (a movement of rightist parties WAY further right than FIDESZ) are shown to be responsible, as alleged by the MSZP and implicated on video, their mayoral candidate, Istv????n Tarl????s, will withdraw, for obvious reasons. Is this as simple as a bunch of right-wingers and hoodlums smashing things up because of anger at the Socialists? It’s possible. The talk noted earlier about a so-called “heroic death” isn’t football-hooligan talk (as anybody who’s experienced their drunken subway ravings can tell you,half the time these guys can’t manage to connect an adjective and a noun, let alone combine them with a verb to make a complete sentence). That sort of language is par for the course for aggrieved hyper-nationalists, though.

Three, the MSZP looks bad, and FIDESZ now looks even worse. This is about the only thing that could possibly have taken even a touch of the heat off of Gyurcs????ny. Not only was it rallies they endorsed having gone wrong, but Ibolya D????vid, the MDF leader (whose refusal to go along with Viktor Orb????n’s highjinks cost FIDESZ the election, btw), has directly tossed this right into their lap while not giving Gyurcs????ny even a moment’s slack. Would FIDESZ, whose campaigns this spring were a watchword for blatant demogoguery, coordinate with ultrarightists? If this had been the case, though… what would Jobbik and Co. have to gain? This is precisely the sort of thing that plays right into the hands of the left-media, which has portrayed even mildly non-left family types as dangerous, drooling nutcases.

Four, the political chaos is ongoing. Conversations with folks in Budapest indicated that, at least prior to last night’s violence, a LOT of generally bitter folks were going to come out and protest. I had originally thought that this would slow things down, but it seems that protests are continuing, and perhaps even accelerating. The MDF under D????vid are now looking pretty good politically (not that this is immediately relevant, but if Gyurcs????ny’s government folds, which is a reasonable likelihood, it will be, particularly since they were the only folks to come out in favor of unriggable Ireland-style flat taxes). The SZDSZ (“Free Democrats”) are obviously keeping their heads down (except Parliamentary blah-blah accusing FIDESZ of “doublespeak” while their Socialist coalition partners take a heavy beating).

Five…. What’s up with the Ferencv????ros and ????jpest soccer clubs? Instead of the Blues and Greens giving the Byzantine state hell, now we have the Green-and-White teaming up with the Purple-and-White to randomly smash up a government building? This simply doesn’t make sense: either these guys are fakes, or else somebody successfully instigated something new and very dangerous in Hungarian politics. In the “dirty tricks department,” I’m not sure which would actually be worse for Hungary.

Six: Buses are coming in from the countryside. Legit protestors, or more thugs?

I’m hesitant to guess any further than this, because Hungarian politics is a broth of poisonous recriminations and counter-recriminations at the best of times. Now with the situation in a truly Byzantine state of murkiness… any further conclusions are really working on a leap of faith until matters are fully substantiated. I don’t know how Gyurcs????ny can hold it together at this point, though he has publicly stated that he will not resign.