Geraldo Alckmin drove Brazil’s popular incumbent President Lula into a runoff Oct. 29 with a powerful showing in Sunday’s election. The guy rocks.
Source: AP, via BBC photo gallery

A massive political earthquake is shaking Brazil right now and practically no one in the mainstream media (BBC a notable exception!) is really covering it. This ought to be a much bigger story than it is being made out to be.

I am sort of amazed at the lack of attention. The pillar of the responsible left, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, faces a growing prospect of being toppled as momentum builds the other way. He had been the leader of the new wave of left leaders who’ve been elected in Latin America in just the past few years. He was a megatrend. And now he’s tottering!

This is exactly what happened in Sweden less than two months ago. Not only are voters dissatisfied with hardcore socialism, they are also rejecting socialism-lite!

Here is a mishmash of all the news I have managed to gather in the aftermath of the election:

In the latest news, Geraldo Alckmin, who put a great showing in the presidential race against Lula, just got another big endorsement this morning, this time from a political leader associated with Brazil’s largely left-leaning Christian fundamentalists. Agencia EFE reports here:

Sao Paulo, Oct 3 (EFE).- Surging dark horse Geraldo Alckmin, who will face Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva in an Oct. 29 runoff, got a boost Tuesday when he was endorsed by the leader of one wing of the country’s largest political party, the PMDB.

The endorsement was announced by Rio de Janeiro state Gov. Anthony Garotinho, a favorite of the evangelical Protestants who make up an estimated 15 percent of the Brazilian electorate, after a meeting here with Alckmin.

From Goldman Sachs, which has great Brazil coverage, Tuesday’s report reads as follows:

Lula and Alckmin Prepare Their Campaigns for October 29

Yesterday, Alckmin and President Lula started to strategize with their advisors for the second round, which is scheduled for October 29. They met with their advisors and fielded calls to party leaders, newly elected governors and Congressmen, and, of course, the grand prizes, Crist????vam Buarque and Heloisa Helena. Alckmin also sought the support from A????cio in Minas and Serra in S????o Paulo, who responded favorably, while President Lula offered help to some candidates on the second round of their gubernatorial races in exchange for their support in those states.

Coming out of the elections strengthened in Congress and the gubernatorial elections, the PMDB party is the other target for both Alckmin and President Lula. Alckmin is seeking the support of the PMDB in the South and the Northeast, while President Lula is also trying to seek the support from the PMDB in the South, where his policies have been more unfavorable to agriculture and exporters, and for this reason, it is where Lula lost to Alckmin on Sunday.

Both candidates gave press interviews. In our opinion, Alckmin seemed more comfortable in his new role, acting as a leader who can attack, having nothing to lose and much to gain. By contrast, President Lula seemed uncomfortable and defensive, but he also seemed to try to attack, calling for his only second press interview since he took office, and by demanding the conclusion of the police investigations on the dossier scandal. Having cost him a victory last Sunday, President Lula seems eager to shut this Pandora’s box of political liabilities coming out of the scandal.

In an exchange of barbs that will likely set the tone for the second round, President Lula said that this time he would like to debate ethical issues. Alckmin replied that Lula already lost his chance to do so.

The televised campaigns may start on Wednesday, but both candidates may postpone them until next Monday. The first televised debate is still scheduled for Sunday, October 8, but until now we have not seen any confirmation. President Lula said that he is now eager to participate in televised debates, and the first one is in theory scheduled for Sunday, October 8.

The press is still stunned by the fact that Lula let the chance to win in the first round slip. Right or wrong, the press describes the President as being on the defensive, for example noting that after the polls closed on Sunday, it took him 15 hours to appear in public, while Alckmin went out on TV on Sunday night, celebrating with Serra in S????o Paulo.

The second round is a new race altogether. Even so, anchor your views by closely analyzing the number and the origin of the votes that Lula and Alckmin received on Sunday. From this analysis, we conclude that barring substantial new developments, the electoral math remains extremely favorable for President Lula.

The math is as follows. President Lula gained 6.7 million votes more than Alckmin. In order to win in the second round, Alckmin will have to find where to gain these votes from. To this end, there are four large buckets of votes that amount to a grand total of 40 million votes, or the same number of votes that Alckmin received in the first round.

The first bucket (21.1 million) represents the absent voters (or 16.7% of the total 125.9 million registered voters). We believe that it is unlikely that the turnout ratio would differ markedly in the second round, but it is up to the candidates to convince them to vote.

The second bucket (8.8 million) represents those who voted blank or null, either protesting against the political establishment, or simply because they made mistakes. Again, it is up to the candidates to win their hearts and minds, so that their vote can count in the second round.

The third bucket (9.35 million) represents those who voted for Heloisa Helena (6.6 million), Crist????vam Buarque (2.5 million), or other candidates (0.13 million). It is a reasonable assumption to allocate one-half to three-quarters of the Buarque votes to Alckmin, while we would at most allocate something between one-third to one-half of the Helena votes to Alckmin.

The key point here is that even if we make excessively optimistic assumptions for Alckmin receiving votes from this third bucket, it is unlikely that he would obtain the two-thirds of all these votes, which all else equal, is what he needs to defeat Lula. This implies that Alckmin will have to tap the three other buckets of votes.

The fourth bucket (some 1.1 million) represents votes from PSDBistas who elected A????cio (PSDB) in Minas Gerais, but yet voted for Lula in the presidential elections. Like in the case of the third bucket, even if Alckmin regains most of these votes, with Lula gaining some of the Helena and Buarque votes, Alckmin would still come short of the votes he needs to win on October 29.

Our main take for the second round is that it will not be easy for Alckmin to win, while the electoral arithmetic for the second round is extremely favorable for President Lula. Even so, Alckmin could surprise and win. However, for this to happen, he will have to rely on new and significant political developments, so as to draw from the first two largest buckets of votes: increase the voter turnout and gain the hearts and minds of those who wasted their ballots (the null and blank camp) in the first round.

Two things can trigger such changes. First, and most likely, that Alckmin delivers a masterful performance in the two presidential debates, particularly exploring his upward momentum and the fragility that all the corruption scandals pose for President Lula. Second, like in the case of the dossiergate before the fist round, some new scandal is uncovered, or police investigations lead to more bad news for President Lula.

In this context, other than the televised debate, the main thing to watch in coming days will be the first polls. We believe that Ibope is likely to release a new one on Friday night by TV Globo. The poll will be crucial for us to estimates how will the voters reposition themselves for the second round.

Luis Afonso Assumpcao at Swimming Against The Red Tide reports that Lula is in hunker down mode and wheeling out his ideological big guns, the political operatives who are closest to Hugo Chavez and Fidel Castro in a bid to save his bacon. The report on this can be read here.

Here is a Tuesday news editorial that says much what I have been saying, the only one in the mainstream press I could find, it can be read here.

Eduardo Levy at Levypla writes, in Portuguese, of his delight of his side effectively winning and all the momentum being on Alckmin’s side. “Alckmin has a good chance of victory,” he writes. “If you can read at least a little Spanish, try and see if you can read it, in this link here.

Anjo Vingador at Cai Fora Lula, another Brazilian blog, has political cartoons mocking Lula’s claims of being an ethical guy, and also expressing his exuberance at Alckmins’s showing. He’s got lots of graphics in a well-designed blog, written in Portuguese at this link here.

UPDATE: El Universal is reporting that Venezuela’s Hugo Chavez is terrified of the ‘Lula effect’ spreading to Venezuela, as center-right Manuel Rosales continues to draw huge crowds in Venezuela’s presidential campaign, and soar in the polls. The Venezuelan dictator is terrified!!!!! The bastard knows he’s next!!!!! Long live the power of democracy!!!!!! Read it here.