Apparently, an anarchic landmass with a nuclear weapon.

I feel like this post should have been written back in 2002 when it was revealed that North Korea was working on a nuclear weapons system. The end result seemed inevitable even then. With thousands of pounds of artillery armed just miles from Seoul and the prospect of mushroom-cloud catastrophe just about anywhere, Kim Jong-Il had everyone blackmailed. He was going to get what he wanted no matter what and nobody had the balls to stop him.

But really, there is only so much the United States can do short of invasion — something which would never have happened. The burden has always been on China, the regional giant whose policies above all could have sunk him a long time ago, even now is deciding against any harsh punishment that may result in regime change. After all, China doesn’t have much to fear from North Korea. They have always played it cool with the man on top, which is why Kim Jong-Il has never seen it as a threat worth his inane tirades. South Korea and Japan are now sweating (buying?) bullets, but China has it made in the shade.

China’s real problem is if Kim Jong-Il does break a leg during his performance. His self-defensive cult of personality could break down if necessary goods and foreign currency are frozen completely. This could lead to preservative military action of some sort — or — anarchy.

Thousands of refugees are already fleeing the Hermit Kingdom for a life of freedom, opportunity, and food under the CCP. Now imagine most of the population fleeing en masse toward the border. Then you have military generals vying for power over the one million man army. And the nukes? Well, nobody is sure what exactly is going on with those at this point.

That’s what China is worried about. They don’t want the refugees. They don’t care about the living conditions of the everyday people. They certainly don’t care about democracy or human rights. But what they are thinking about is the potential security crisis caused by an anarchic North Korea over one headed by a really sensitive egoist.

I don’t think the United States can do all that much. Like I said, invasion was never on the table, and that’s the only kind of pressure that can really force necessary changes while maintaining some degree of stability. Further sanctions will only do what they have done to Cuba; make it tougher for Kim Jong-Il to survive, but he will.

As long as China maintains its own policy of appeasement, we will just have to get used to the fact that North Korea will remain nuclear-armed and stagnant for years to come.