Following a disputed but highly publicized report that North Korea apologized to a Chinese envoy for its nuclear test, the hermit kingdom has decided to rejoin 6-way talks regarding its nuclear program.

China, the United States and North Korea agreed in talks Tuesday to resume the six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear programs “at a convenient time in the near future” after a break of almost a year, a Chinese Foreign Ministry statement said.

Christopher Hill, U.S. head delegate to the six-party talks, told reporters after meeting with his Chinese and North Korean counterparts that while the precise date needs to be agreed by all six parties, he believes it will be “in November, or possibly in December.”

The announcement was made after a series of meetings in the Chinese capital among Hill, who is U.S. assistant secretary of state for East Asian and Pacific affairs, Chinese Vice Foreign Minister Wu Dawei and North Korean Vice Foreign Minister Kim Kye Gwan on the same day.

China, much moreso than the United States, is in a position to influence North Korea. I believe that the sudden change in position is not necessarily due to schizophrenia or trying to fool the international community, but because following the nuclear test, pressure from China as well as financial sanctions by Japan have made Kim Jong-ill weaker than he ever has been before.

In fact, according to this article in The Australian, Chinese foreign policy experts and intellectuals are openly debating regime change there, something unprecedented. Whether or not new talks will yield results is another story, but it shows that Kim Jong-il doesn’t have as much room for negotiation himself.

THE Chinese are openly debating “regime change” in Pyongyang after last week’s nuclear test by their confrontational neighbour.
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The Chinese Government has been ultra-cautious in its reaction. However, since Monday, Foreign Ministry officials have started to make a point of distinguishing between the North Korean people and their Government in conversations with diplomats.

Ahead of yesterday’s Security Council vote, some in Beijing argued against heavy sanctions on North Korea for fear that these would destroy what remains of a pro-Chinese “reformist” faction inside the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea.

“In today’s DPRK Government, there are two factions, sinophile and royalist,” one Chinese analyst wrote online. “The objective of the sinophiles is reform, Chinese-style, and then to bring down Kim Jong-il’s royal family. That’s why Kim is against reform. He’s not stupid.”

More than one Chinese academic agreed that China yearned for an uprising similar to the one that swept away the Romanian dictator Nicolae Ceausescu in 1989 and replaced him with communist reformers and generals. The Chinese made an intense political study of the Romanian revolution and even questioned president Ion Iliescu, who took over, about how it was done and what roles were played by the KGB and by Russia.

Mr Kim, for his part, ordered North Korean leaders to watch videos of the swift and chaotic trial and execution of Ceausescu and his wife, Elena, the vice-prime minister, as a salutary exercise.

The balance of risk between reform and chaos dominated arguments within China’s ruling elite. The Chinese have also permitted an astonishing range of vituperative internet comment about an ally with which Beijing maintains a treaty of friendship and co-operation. Academic Wu Jianguo published an article in a Singapore newspaper – available online in China – bluntly saying: “I suggest China should make an end of Kim’s Government.”

“The Chinese have given up on Kim Jong-il,” commented one diplomat. “The question is, what are they going to do about it?”

Something in the air is beginning to smell, and I belive it is one of decay. The regime of Kim Jong-il is beginning to rot from the inside. Internally, he is weaker than ever before.

When people think of authoritarian regimes and dictators, they think that one man — such as Kim Jong-il — controls everything. Surprise, surprise! This is not true. In fact, even North Korea’s regime is composed of very certain elements which help maintain control. Kim Jong-il is one factor, with his cult of personality. Another that many know well is the military. However, in order to feed and pay this military, Kim Jong-il needs the support of the country’s financial elite; those who are able to do business outside the country and are therefore able to support the military which keeps these financial interests secure.

But what happens when these financial elites begin to perceive Kim Jong-il’s tactics as detrimental to their interests? Again, from the Australian:

Meanwhile, some of the North Korean elite are seeking their boltholes in China.

Xin Cheng, an estate agent in the high-rise district of Wang Jing, which is popular with resident South Korean businessmen, said many high-ranking North Koreans were buying property there.

The North Korean business elite is looking for a way to both protect what it has while expanding. In order to do that, there must be a degree of reform which Kim Jong-il refuses to go along with. It would be the further erosion of his own power. Seemingly this would be the beginning of either an internal power struggle or a financial flight, both of which we can only hear scarcely about, but which would leave both leave Kim and his royal family jeopardized. If even the military isn’t being fed, be ready for a coup backed by the business interests.

This is likely the best scenario that both the United States and China can hope for. Stable transition will assure that a plethora of refugees won’t flood into China, while rogue military personnel loyal to Kim Jong-il won’t go straight for the nukes. But again, this is the most optimistic scenario. The worst-case scenario, which is what China is planning for, is a huge influx of refugees and total regional instability. A scary thought for them.

So in order to bring this change about, the United States should work with China in order to alleviate such concerns in order to bring about the mutual benefits. DPRK Studies puts together a list of things that the U.S. government, instead of simply making demands, can actively do so that someday soon Kim Jong-ill will be a name only to be read about in schoolbooks.

THE CARROTS: U.S. policy makers need to address China????????s concerns of an influx of refugees and fear of having USFK on their border with two specific proposals.

First, a comprehensive plan to assist North Koreans in their country in the event of collapse by a) having ample aid ready and waiting to be delivered to the North Korean people; b) having teams trained for all major localities ready to deploy to direct aid help keep order; c) help China foot the bill for deploying and maintaining troops on its border with North Korea, and d) carry out an intense psych-ops campaign leading up to and during this event to prepare the North Korean people.

Second, a U.S. policy that USFK units will remain below the 38th parallel and not setup bases or deploy north except in the event of a war, with the exception of military advisors and related personnel. Security functions north of the border to be assigned to ROK units who are quite capable and do not fact a language barrier. In this way the buffer zone China prefers would be maintained, and in all likelihood USFK would see more of a drawdown, particularly along the DMZ, as the KPA threat is removed.

THE STICK: This one is on the blunt side; tell China to choose between propping up Kim Jong-il and having access to the U.S. economy. Begin with the loss of Most Favored Nation trade status and escalate from there. It????????s a double-edged threat that would hurt many American business in the short term, but might convince China that the U.S. is indeed so serious about the North Korea issue that the next step might be military. Above Pinkston notes that China is becoming a stakeholder in the DPRK economy ???????? use this stick to make China realize who is more important to their finances.

The stick seems to be one that any American government wouldn’t go for, no matter how effective it would be. The Bush administration would lose so much support from business and consumers alike that it would find itself flailing about helplessly. A large popular mandate for such a move would only come on the brink of absolute crisis.

In this situation, I’m not sure if there are any sticks that we can truly apply; only carrots. But if the Chinese political elite is actually openly debating regime change in North Korea, there is hope that the carrots alone will be enough to bring China around. Doing so will ensure the possibility of a stable long-term transition in North Korea as well as the prevention of a dangerous arms race.