Marxist Nicaraguan ex-dictator, Daniel Ortega, now running for president
Source: Voltairenet

Nicaraguans go to the polls tomorrow to choose their next president.

It’s a three-way race, with a center-right guy, Eduardo Montealegre, a hard-right guy, Jose Rizo, and the very leftwing Daniel Ortega, who once aligned with Cuban dictator Fidel Castro and made war on Ronald Reagan’s America. Ortega, you may recall, taunted America as he went shopping for mirrored designer sunglasses on Park Avenue. Ronald Reagan called him “the skunk at the garden party” and “the little dictator.” That was one long ten-year war.

In the end, in 1990, Ortega was thrown out of office by Nicaraguan voters and an imperfect democracy formed. But Ortega didn’t go away.

Ortega ran for president two other times and failed to make a comeback. Meanwhile, his stepdaughter charged him with child molestation, and Ortega only avoided any legal prosecution because the statute of limitations ran out. Now, he’s running again, poised for a first-round victory, something that will take even battered Nicaragua back to the stone age.

Communist. Dictator. Pervert. No kidding, even a bank robber. Ortega’s one swell thug and just the guy to make an alliance with Venezuela’s oily leader, Hugo Chavez. He already has.

The primary system in Nicaragua is not the world’s best. It’s not that way because the Sandinistas of Ortega were never really thrown out. They controlled the civil service and the judiciary and in doing so, they rigged the rules of this election just so Daniel Ortega could win this time. It will only take 35% of the vote for Ortega to win. Many fear he just might.

Meanwhile, the opposition is badly split. They should be walking on broken glass to elect ANYONE but the confiscating Daniel Ortega who will be sure to steal the country blind. Who the hell cares if it’s Montealegre or Rizo? Each insanely insists he has the biggest lead in the polls and that’s why the other guy should pull out. It’s too late in the day for that kind of rubbish. That pair should flip and coin, nominate one candidate and have the winner promise the support the other guy in the next election or make him vice president. If that happened, Nicaragua would be better off than what it is facing today. There is a real danger Ortega could win.

Still, no one really knows what will happen:

Stratfor is skeptical that Ortega can win. The private intelligence group writes:

Nicaragua: Ortega’s Victory Far From Guaranteed

November 03, 2006 22 15 GMT

Summary

Nicaragua will hold a first-round presidential election Nov. 5. With four viable candidates, a runoff is almost certain. Daniel Ortega, the front-runner and former Sandinista president, appears poised to win the first round — but Ortega is not as solid as he appears, and a win for the Sandinistas is not assured.

Analysis

Nicaraguans will go to the polls Nov. 5 to elect a president. Former President Daniel Ortega — leader of the Sandinista National Liberation Front (FSLN) — is the front-runner and has drawn international attention during his campaign. However, if Ortega does not win in the first round he will likely struggle in the second, as his opponents might seek to ally against him.

If Ortega wins the election, the United States could take action against Nicaragua. Nicaragua poses no substantial threat to the United States on its own, but Washington is still wary of the FSLN from the wars in the 1980s, and Ortega’s alliances with Cuba and Venezuela put him at ideological odds with the United States. U.S. companies have openly donated to candidates opposing Ortega, and Washington is sending a presidential delegation to oversee the elections. On Oct. 19, U.S. Commerce Secretary Carlos Gutierrez went so far as to threaten to cut off aid to the country — a threat the current administration is likely to carry out. Nicaragua sends a full 30 percent of its exports to the United States, and its small economy is highly dependent on U.S. remittances, aid and investment. Gutierrez warned that if Ortega disrupts the U.S.-Central America-Dominican Republic Free Trade Agreement, Nicaragua risks losing $240 million in investments and 1,300 jobs. Such a loss would devastate the Nicaraguan economy.

In light of these threats, Ortega is banking on a mutually beneficial relationship with Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. Chavez is seeing his influence slip in the region and welcomes Ortega as an ally who has anti-U.S., leftist ideals. Chavez has openly endorsed Ortega’s campaign and has supplied Ortega’s company with diesel to distribute within the country — prompting accusations of electoral manipulation — and has promised more fuel and aid if Ortega wins. However, Chavez depends entirely on oil revenue and has been spreading it very thin. There is no way to guarantee that Chavez will be able to come through on his promises. If Nicaragua loses U.S. aid and Chavez fails to deliver, the country will face dire consequences.

Russia — an ally and economic partner of Chavez — issued a statement Nov. 2 to protest U.S. involvement in Nicaraguan elections. Rather than an indication that Nicaragua’s election (or Nicaragua itself) is important to Russia, this move is an attempt to both aggravate the United States and shore up Venezuela and the steadily weakening Chavez.

A clear winner is not likely in the Nov. 5 round of elections. As of Nov. 3, Ortega is ranked first, with 30 percent of intended votes — five points shy of being able to win the first round, if he is also five points ahead of his closest opponent — and his closest opponent, Eduardo Montealegre of the Nicaraguan Liberal Alliance (ALN), is only three points behind. If the election does in fact progress to a second round, Montealegre will likely ally with Jose Rizo of the Constitutionalist Liberal Party (PLC) — the next highest-ranking candidate, with 19 percent — as they have compatible ideologies.

Most people have already made up their minds about the well-known radical Ortega; those who do not support him are firmly against him, and he is unlikely to sway more voters in this round or the next. Furthermore, Ortega — who lost his last two election bids — has alienated like-minded parties and will likely be unable to create party alliances. Without allies or the ability to gain votes on his own account, Ortega will face a serious challenge in a second-round election — especially considering that the geopolitical price for Ortega’s election might be greater than Nicaraguans are willing to pay. If the elections go to a second round, the ALN and PLC likely will ally to tip the scales against Ortega.

Washington Post has a very good primer on this miserable election here.