What’s gotten into Brazil’s supposedly decent president, Luiz Inacio “Lula” da Silva?

He flew up to Venezuela and openly endorsed Hugo Chavez for president, hugging and kissing him, and openly meddling in an election for a country that’s not his own. Oddly enough, Chavez did not do the same for him, which is to say meddle, as he openly and shamelessly did in Peru and Mexico.

Meanwhile, the lovefest between the Brazilian and Venezuelan leaders comes a day after Peru’s leader, Alan Garcia, paid a visit to Lula and then openly declared verbal war on Chavez, calling him the scum of the earth to a Venezuelan newspaper. It was a war cry.

What’s happening.

Our Brazilian friends, like Luis Afonso, might well point out that it just goes to show that Lula is no damn good, never was, has always maintained the leadership of the far-leftist Sao Paulo Forum as paramount to any national concerns. And it’s one good theory.

Then there’s my theory, that Lula is basically a good guy, and Chavez, with all his petrodollars and corruption, has Lula over a barrel somehow. Meddling in another nation’s politics is very much against Brazil’s culture, and Lula has never interfered in any other nation’s elections – surely it must mean that Chavez has some damning home movies of Lula, maybe taking briquets of cash from Chavez or something. It’s a theory I first heard in Caracas. Still, corruption never seems to touch Lula, so even if home movies of Lula accepting Chavista bribes surfaced, it might not topple Lula.

Then there’s Daniel at Venezuela News & Views, who has an interesting third theory: Lula enjoys being leader of the continent, and Chavez serves well as his own personal pit bull. Lula coming to Venezuela and saying kind words about Chavez is nothing more than patting a colony child on the head, and keeping him in the Brazil orbit. Because Venezuela is not in Brazil’s natural orbit, it is in the U.S.’s sphere of influence. Daniel says to look at a map and see for yourself. Venezuela is the natural ally of the U.S., not Brazil, due to geography. A trip to the U.S. is an easy couple hours by plane or a two-day oil tanker voyage. Meanwhile the mighty and impentrable Amazon separates Brazil and Venezuela, making an arduous sea journey more practical. That’s why Lula sees it as important to keep Chavez president, he will keep Venezuela in Brazil’s impractical orbit. If Manuel Rosales is elected, he will take Venezuela back to its natural and most efficient area of influence – the U.S. Lula, who’s trying to amass regional leadership, does not want to see that. What an intriguing and original analysis. Which of the three do you agree with? Read the whole thing here.

UPDATE: Alek Boyd at VCrisis has weighed in, he thinks Lula is just being Lula and has a long history of supporting Chavez at critical moments – note his very union-unfriendly act of breaking the PDVSA strike on behalf of Chavez in 2003. Lula shipped Venezuela lots of non-union-produced oil to keep Chavez in business. In addition, Lula has signed lots of cash deals with Chavez and must pay tribute for his largesse. Read the whole thing here.

UPDATE: Miguel Octavio observes that Lula is really interfering in his country’s internal affairs and that a shakeout in these current conditions is going to leave Lula looking bad. Here he is, supporting a tyrant who’s about to be booted, and not imagining there will be any consequences. Miguel is not so sure that Lula is calculating right, he is just showing that he doesn’t know the country he’s purporting to interfere with. It’s a great read here.