Final Thoughts Before the Elections

By Alex Beech

Political marches induce hope in the best cases, and hysteria in the worst. During the referendum, I noticed how a march can beintoxicating – to see all those people in one place, to feel the energy. But at the end of the day, millions stay home, and you never know how those millions are going to vote in the privacy of their voting booths.

There is a reality Venezuelans who oppose Chavez need to face if we’re going to move forward as a nation, and that is that Chavez may win on Sunday. While Chavez has made colossal mistakes as a president, there are still those who will vote for him. Why?

For many in the ailing middle class and alienated upper class, Chavez has destroyed jobs, scared foreign investors, plundered the public sector, drained the country of its human capital, and generated hate. But there are also those who have benefited from this government, either directly or indirectly. How many bankers and investors haven’t made millions from recent debt transactions, from dealings with corrupt politicians? New homes purchased on Park Avenue and the Dominican Republic represent this wealth. And it’s not a class of nouveau riche, as the media likes to portray them. Or Bolivarian bourgeoisie. Plenty of old money has also grown, and money, like fungus, likes to stay where money grows. These people will vote for Chavez.

– Old monsters are better than new monsters. This mentality particularly applies to the poor. If you’ve always lived in a tin hut with no running water and electricity, Chavez has spoken to your dreams, even if nothing has materialized. He has spent millions on tangible benefits, like missions and subsidized food. Even if the only things some have gotten from the revolution is fresh apples and aspirins, that’s two more things than they had before. Add to that the fervent promise of a house and an education, and you’ve got loyalty. For those voters, there’s no guarantee that a new president will provide anything new. Moreover, there’s no promise of continuity. With Chavez, the new house might come, but with the new guy, what happens? Nothing is guaranteed. Expectations, like fungus, prosper where expectations grow. These people will vote for Chavez.

– Never underestimate the power of acknowledgement. After millions of Venezuelans were ignored, personally and politically, for decades, Chavistas came along and acknowledged them – spoke to them on the street, gave them a voice. Humans are like children who are often content with attention. When I was an international observer for the Democratic Coordinator in 2004, I wanted to see a Mision at work. I was taken to a Mision Robinson, where I spoke to a classroom of Chavistas. One person who struck me was a woman who said, “when could I ever speak to a minister or a councilman before? Now I can speak to any politician.” This woman will likely never get anything from a Chavista politician, but the fact he acknowledged her guaranteed her loyalty because she felt like a political actor in her country. People like her will vote for Chavez.

– There are those who believe that Venezuela is on a longterm path towards social and political equality, and that that can only be achieved through a Marxist dialectic they see at work in Venezuela. Ignoring any present realities, they will vote for Chavez.

– There are those who still feel disdain for the politicians of the past, and they’re scared that things will go back to the way they were. The opposition includes everybody who isn’t a Chavista. That’s a rather large menu, which includes fresh and vibrant faces, and old faces which still reek of the past.

Even though the past few weeks have been magical in many ways ???????? the marches, the music, the colors ????????Venezuelans have developed an extremist mentality that can only bring harm. It’s either democracy or dictatorship, victory or death, capitalism or communism, etc. This infantile mentality has led to despair that has almost morphed into a strange silence, as if the elections results were a life and death matter.

While it would be great if Rosales won the election, and he may, the Venezuelan opposition should also prepare for a Chavez victory. Chavez enjoys at least 40% of support, and that’s a conservative estimate.

While the Chavez administration has been a disaster – corrupt beyond belief, incompetent, a violator of basic human dignity ???????? Chavez is a pragmatist and a survivor. To win the presidency, he campaigned with the rhetoric of hatred. But to remain president, he knows he will need to govern a nation that on the one hand hates him, and on the other hand doubts him. That means moderation because repression isn’t an option. Too many people have marched against him, nailed themselves to trees, and defected from his camp. Marx said, apparently, that shame is the only true revolutionary sentiment, and Chavez has been shamed into humility. There is no way, with the money that is flowing through Venezuela, that he will implement a barter system or
expropriate property. His own people are more capitalistic and materialistic in practice than their predecessors, and at the end of the day, so is he.

The next four days are historical. They will be defined, not only by the election, but by how Venezuelans react to their fate. The Chavez government needs to respect the electoral process, guaranteeing fairness. If fairness is evident, then the opposition needs to accept whatever results may come with dignity and grace. Difficult times are ahead regardless of who wins the election. No matter what side is celebrating next week, wounds will need to be healed which will require time, reason, and serenity.