The news of the defeat of Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s allies in elections for both local councils as well as the Assembly of Experts is good news to those of us who want to see the influence of the madman diminished. The winners are a general alliance between former President Rafsanajani’s “pragmatic” conservatives and reformists, an alliance which could make way for a slow transition even past where Iran was before Ahmadinejad took power. Here is the Guardian’s article on the subject:

The Iranian president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, faced electoral embarrassment today after the apparent failure of his supporters to win control of key local councils and block the political comeback of his most powerful opponent.

Early results from last Friday’s election suggested throughout Iran returning a majority of reformists and moderate fundamentalists opposed to Mr Ahmadinejad.

Compounding his setback was the success of Hashemi Rafsanjani, an influential pragmatist and fierce critic of the president’s radical policies. Mr Rafsanjani – whom Mr Ahmadinejad defeated in last year’s presidential election – received the most votes in elections to the experts’ assembly, a clerical body empowered to appoint and remove Iran’s supreme leader. By contrast, Ayatollah Mohammed-Taghi Mesbah-Yazdi, Mr Ahmadinejad’s presumed spiritual mentor, came sixth.

Analysts attributed Mr Rafsanjani’s resurgence to his newly-found status as a saviour of the reformists, the liberal movement that shunned him as a hated symbol of the establishment when it held power. Mr Rafsanjani has been increasingly identified with reformers since last year’s presidential election and many voters turned to him to voice anger at Mr Ahmadinejad.

Reformists hailed the poll – billed by many as Mr Ahmadinejad’s first electoral test since taking office – as a “major defeat” for the president, but they also warned that the slowness in declaring returns could indicate an underhand attempt to rig the outcome. The interior ministry, which is in the hands of Mr Ahmadinejad’s supporters, oversees the counting of ballots.

The result is not at all surprising for two reasons. The big and obvious one is that during the 2005 presidential election, the liberals and reformists backed out, completely abstaining from the vote. They believed the elections to be rigged, and when Ahmadinejad won exactly the total that Supreme Leader Khamenei predicted, this became obvious. Now that the liberals, reformists, and old guard conservatives are teaming up against him, this alliance of convenience has created a huge victory that should reduce Ahmadinejad’s ability to influence internal politics considerably.

The second reason is very important, and has nothing truly to do with Ahmadinejad’s confrontation with the West over Iran’s nuclear program. It’s all about his internal policies, something that has been destroying the economy. In this Ahmadinejad differs from his predecessors in a very large way, which has provoked the current backlash. Beside being an Islamic fundamentalist, Ahmadinejad is a populist of the Hugo Chavez type. In essence his government is not simply theocratic, but an Islamic dictatorship of the proletariat.

His policies are isolating the Iranian people from the world, pushing whatever business is left to flee. The economy is in shatters and people are losing jobs. So in this sense, he has failed much more than Hugo Chavez to create a perception by the poor that his leadership has raised their standard of living. Because of this many are becoming disillusioned with his campaign promises and seeing hope in the opposing alliance. His support is coming from only the most ideological of the people, a fervent minority that is propping up his power. Ahmadinejad is also empowering the ideological Basij militia, a one-million man morality police that is increasingly loyal to the president.

Besides the disenchanted, the Old Guard that basically facilitated his rise to power is turning on him as well. As if to show that the electoral process in Iran is extremely screwed up, candidates are screened for eligibility beforehand. This means that some reformers, but many fundamentalists, were not allowed to run because of their political allegiances. While I am sure that these fundamentalists would not have increased Ahmadinejad’s count significantly, it is a move that only testifies to the corruption of Iran’s supposed electoral system. It was a move designed to limit Ahmadinejad’s power and prevent the same topsy-turvy revolution that he is exporting elsewhere from radically occurring domestically.

What happens next with this regard will be interesting, as he knows that while he has made many enemies within the system, he is deriving most of his power from without it from diehard supporters and a loyal, deadly militia. Will the sides come to blows eventually? It’s possible. Some reports show that Revolutionary Guards troops have stormed vote counting centers, literally pointing guns at people’s heads unless they falsify the election in Ahmadinejad’s favor. People are becoming extremely suspicious because, even though preliminary results are out, the final count is not being announced by the government while all of this goes on. And to add to the suspicion, it is Ahmadinejad’s buddies who are in charge of the vote counting process.

Whether the reformer/conservative alliance begins to take over or Ahmadinejad holds on through force and falsehoods, there is a domestic crisis brewing in Iran. In the first case, they will try to steer the country away from his most extreme policies and put a corrective course for Iran’s economy. In the latter, the people will know that Ahmadinejad blatantly stole the election when he was unwanted. If this happens, I wholely expect the reformers and conservatives to start a campaign for taking the country back. Whatever that campaign is, whether something secret and grassroots or mass protests in the face of police action, it will happen if they are motivated enough. The Iranian government could be brought to the brink.

Good news (besides the obvious)? Hard fought battles against extremist and authoritarian presidents usually results in some kind of structural reform to the political system, a mouth-watering prospect.