A large reason for my absence here from Publius, beside a hectic end to the year, has been that I’ve been enjoying my vacation time with my family here in Madrid and Andorra. Since I’ve been in the latter for the past several days, it’s been nearly impossible to get on the internet without forking out five euros an hour at the nearest cafe, but a week is long enough to remain holed off from the rest of the world. And frankly, my fingers were getting fidgety.

I was in Madrid the day that the bomb went off at Terminal Four at the airport. I had just been there the day before picking up my girlfriend. Just about every diplomat or expat had kids coming home for the holidays just days earlier, so the Americans families were shaken for awhile. As would anyone, especially the Spaniards who live through such bombings on such a frequent basis.

News of the bombing came just as we were all leaving from Madrid. Within minutes the people at the American embassy were saying that it was believed to be ETA due to warning calls made within an hour of the actual explosion. From what I know, they said it was at the airport, and while the terminal was cleared, the bomb was actually in the parking lot.

While Barcepundit notes rightly that calling in beforehand is the modus operandi of ETA, the entire thing seemed a bit strange to me at first. With the weak-kneed Zapatero government giving them such a sweet deal with the peace process, it is hard to imagine what ETA would gain from such a disastrous bombing. Also, to a large degree, ETA has only gone after Spanish political and military targets, which leaves the goals of such a bombing unclear.

If I were the leader of another terrorist cell, particularly an Islamist one, I would know that calling beforehand is the way that ETA does things, and I would frame it. Those phone calls were just about the only things that the government had to go on. The Islamists don’t need a reason to kill as long as it incites fear and chaos in the society that they are attacking. However… I think it speaks volumes that ETA has not come out and denied involvement after so long.

Having had a while to think about it, it is perfectly clear why ETA might make such an attack. It can only survive in an environment of eternal conflict. It plays on the fact that a majority of Basque citizens are very much in favor of self-determination and even independence. That is how it is able to garner any support at all. However, as the process slowly comes to a close and the Basque people get what they want, there will be no reason for ETA to exist. The fact is, its Batasuna political party garners less than 20% of the vote in its own homeland, as people become sick of the violence and the kidnappings. If it is true that ETA committed the bombing, then they will see — if they truly desire self-determination — that ETA is becoming the one thing most in contrast to this future.

We will have to wait and see, because while everyone is already blaming ETA, the details are not completely clear, though they are the most likely culprit. If their organization is to continue functioning, with its arms trafficking and “revolutionary taxes”, then it will have to keep the conflict going. It certainly has no good intentions. While many people in Spain have seen this, hopefully the vast majority of the Basque people see this as well.